You would classify a fit horse under its days last start.
Generally horses that have had there last start less than 28 days win around 76% of the races.

A couple of our trainers have said horses lose there fitness after 18 to 22 days of intense training.

Whereas horses generally after 3 runs only win 51% of races.

The difference lies with the distance. Stayers require the 3-4 runs in a prep where sprinters can go fresh or 2nd up.

Other factors include the coat, sweating at barriers or in the yard or even the head position when walking around before the jump.

If the sweat is clear it doesn't matter apparently ..... not actually being a horse I cannot categorically confirm this, but I have it from a high authority, approx 16 hands ..... lol

Some of those colts sweat up over a young filly!
But the first indicators are the best statistically.

As it's really Privateer's thread ..... Quote Privateer "

When you see a horse sweating, don't worry if the sweat isclear.

And, no, I won't be providing night classes in equine anatomy."

Allow me a moment to have a little bit of a gloat. It comes from researching almost every post on here, a lot of which have been archived into history. It also comes from a recent purchase of a database, of which I've been able to put to use to reinforce a couple of my systems as profitable, but moreso to bust quite a few myths of racing. I've ended up with a list of 6, different to Privateers Pareto list, wherby mine, actioned individually on any system I've trialled, has improved the POT. I'll say that again ..... I have a list of 6 filters, each of which applied individually will improve the POT of any system, sometimes dramatically (eg; from a lowly 6% to 91.25% ..... I think I've posted this fact before).

Now the rub is this ..... each of these 6 filters applied together in their entirety show a POT of 21.3% which is ABSOLUTELY REMARKABLE when you think about the fact that these filters aren't really in Sync with each other. Another myth exploded, and actually one of mine.

Forever, I thought a decent system had to have a sound base and then filters that complemented each other filter, in sync, and in sync with the base. Apparenty not.

The Pareto thread shows that decent filters do not have to correlate or be in sync with each other.

I'd like to thank the originator of this thread ..... My 6 filters are oh so different to Privateers and in keeping with my theme, are outside the square, but the proof of the pudding has been the extensive testing, and realisation that there are single filters which will improve any system.

Can you name two of the six filters.

I'ld like to see him tip a single winner.

Of course I can, but I'll do better than that and tell you how I came across them. In the longshot system jacfin, for the first time I'd seen on this forum, exploded one of the biggest racing myths. I didn't take much notice of it at the time but it stuck in my head. It's now the BEST filter I have, the BEST.

Partypooper, in a couple of his systems came up with one of the very best filters, but they went along largely un-noticed - Why - Because it's safer to stick with the crowd, even tho'rowd in this case leads you to a loss of 15% at best. remember 95%+ of punters lose, and some don't just lose the obligatory 15%, they do the lot.

Then there was sarge1.

And there is a SP filter which runs along the lines of Privateers filter.

And another one from Partypooper.

And lastly from the poster who posted, who's name escapes me, who posted the longshot system.

Why the Pareto thread has been so appealing is simply the fact that it reinforces everything punters want to know. The tried and True SAFE method ..... but does it work ? I'll guarantee that Privateer had a few other things up his sleeve.

I've no doubt the way the pre-post is constructed that you could do something creative with that, and that going up in weight blah, blah is a little like swimming agin the tide, but constructive, but does it increase the POT ?

I have 6 filters which individually improve any system I've tested, and make a profit with all of them in the same basket no matter how disjointed it seems they are.

The Pareto philosophy is good, but have we got all the components, Isuspect NOT !!!!

This is a systems thread moeee, one for those of us who aren't cerebrally challenged.

hahahahaha!!!
Not a single one :)
On any thread in any subForum