Something like Vain Ali or Stormbay Lilly in the next at Devenport. But you'll struggle to get a price. One will win now just wait, but not with my money at thet price. :)

Bad example

What about Blue Sky at Randwick. Again I'm finished for the day but I would have layed it.

I would have still lost most of my bank at either TAB or BF odds for the lay.

I know why I lost most of the bank; again I was laying it based on the TAB odds being that its was unlikely to win. So I would take the BF lay odds so I could get the lay matched. That was the "angle" I was taking on coming towards my selections. It was assumed that the market would know better than me in selecting winners. I wasn't limiting the bank and was staking high amounts to win back the bank "at all costs".

Its a good exercise in not doing that tho, as something happened in that race that totally messed with the field. So its a good example for limiting ones liability when laying (for the unforeseen).

Don't get me wrong, if I was actually risking my own dosh, I would be limiting my liabilty and protecting my bank thats for sure.

What I'm trying to work out, is how reckless can I be, and how much effort do I need to invest for success.

A Stormbay won but not yours :D

What makes them "a hopeful" is it based on form? Something showing a place in the last 3 starts with an apprentice onboard?

Duchess Danewin at Port Lincon maybe.

They're supported but not too heavily. Actually these have been crappy examples as you'd have only got on the Randwick one. That's another thing to mention. I've usually twice as many selections than I manage to lay.

Hi Chrome ,
Can you give us an example on how that idea of win lay x 1 & place bet x 2 would work using say a $6 div?

For example.
The last bit that was mentioned , where 1 unit profit would be made, has me a little confused , I would have thought it would have resulted in a 1 unit loss because 2 units would have been lost on the place back component of the bet & gained 1 unit on the win lay component, resulting in a 1 unit loss if the horse finished unplaced.

One the other hand , at 3 units per race
If the 2 units were a place lay ($2.50 = 1.5/1) & a 1 unit win lay ($6.00=5/1) , all unplaced .
= +3 units profit .

If the lay place bet x 2 finished 2nd or 3rd (at $2.50 x 2) & win lay bet x 1 but did not win. ($5-3units...)
= -2 units.

If lay place bet x 2 finished 1st,2nd or 3rd($2.50) &
win lay bet x 1 (at $6.00) came 1st. (5+6=11-3...)
= -8 units

If out of 100 races x 3units per race, 15% should win instead of lose & 30% get placed
240-300= +60 Profit.

For this to work, we are assuming that a horses price runs slightly less to its theoretical chance of winning & in this price range of $6.00win & $2.50plc (or less)
In this case, 1 divided by $6 = 16.7% theoretical chance.
Field sizes of 12+ makes this idea work best.

Total = +60 profit from every 100 races = 20% POT

Cheers.

Yes, I'm quite tired, sorry I previously had it backwards, it's back it to win x 1 lay it to place x2 - oops.

Damn thyroid problems.

Hi Pengo,
Heres something you may like to check out.
.Target the 3rd fav in each race. 1 min till jump
.Must have a win SR of 10% & less.
.Preferably 10+ career starts.
.Place Lay bet this selection.

These have an average div of $2.00-2.90 when lay betting to place.
Try & keep within this range.
The SR for running unplaced, is approx 67%
One could now afford to do some progressional betting in this lower price range to pull back any losses.

Heres one idea ...
Keep going up the ladder
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 ect. until in front.

Cheers.

Thanks, I don't have the time to invest on determining the selections for the above during the week so will use it on the weekend.

For today, time to try the maidens.


Cranbourne Race 1
4. Rype
Bank 100
Betfair 19
STAKE 5
LIABILITY 90
Winning

BANK 105

Bank 105

Penola R1
5 Musty Springs
Betfair 7
Stake 14
Liability 84