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-   -   Lay Don Scott's Outsiders (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25652)

aussielongboat 1st January 2013 07:57 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
A losing day. There was one accident from the 30 selections for a loss of $12.19.

To date (23 days of laying the selections) there have been 826 smiles from 842 selections for a profit of $178.64.


Which at level stakes if you were backing them means POT of -21%.
I have done the numbers for all of 2012 and the POT using tattsbet prices is -35%.

the difference would be the better prices earned on BF when the long shots gets up.
this laying approach has legs - the difficulty is finding a way to get the bets on efficiently.
in 2012 there were 28083 selections or 77 per day across all gallops covered by tatts.

if anyone knows of bot that will automatically scrape them out of excel i'm all ears

UselessBettor 1st January 2013 09:17 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by aussielongboat
if anyone knows of bot that will automatically scrape them out of excel i'm all ears

You would need to code one or get someone to do it for you. The easiest way is to just get someone to do it on freelancer. It would probably cost you around $100-$200.

michaelg 1st January 2013 10:13 AM

Out of interest if all the 842 selections had been hypothetically bet for $1 at the final price on Betfair's exchange then the return would have been $637 which includes a $200 winner for an overall loss of $205. There were 8 winners that paid less than $20 which is a bit of a worry because D.Scott's market rated them at $100 or higher.

I started recording the results on Friday 7 Dec but the first day of laying for the method was actually Thursday 6 Dec which unfortunately I omitted to transfer to my computer records that I keep on Notepad. On that day there were 24 selections for 24 smiles for a profit of $20.10, but because it's too much trouble to adjust the records I will ignore it.

aussielongboat 1st January 2013 10:19 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
You would need to code one or get someone to do it for you. The easiest way is to just get someone to do it on freelancer. It would probably cost you around $100-$200.


yes i will try them.
i have used odesk in the past i have found their people very good

aussielongboat 1st January 2013 10:21 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Out of interest if all the 842 selections had been hypothetically bet for $1 at the final price on Betfair's exchange then the return would have been $637 which includes a $200 winner for an overall loss of $205. There were 8 winners that paid less than $20 which is a bit of a worry because D.Scott's market rated them at $100 or higher.

I started recording the results on Friday 7 Dec but the first day of laying for the method was actually Thursday 6 Dec which unfortunately I omitted to transfer to my computer records that I keep on Notepad. On that day there were 24 selections for 24 smiles for a profit of $20.10, but because it's too much trouble to adjust the records I will ignore it.


i had 2 filters
ds> 100
starts > 9

i will max out the price at 100 and see what happens

michaelg 1st January 2013 10:26 AM

To recap the rules which I've changed/hopefully improved from the original.

1) minimum of 9 starters,
2) finished 7th or worse at last start,
3) not resuming from a spell now or at previous start,
4) must not have been credited with 3.5 points or more in worksheet's Form column. This would have eliminated at least three accidents that I'm aware of.

michaelg 1st January 2013 10:59 AM

I forgot to include the most important rule:

Must be $100 or more in Don Scott's market.

UselessBettor 1st January 2013 11:30 AM

Micheal,

How about 1 more filter. Only lay those that have a bookies odds of $20 or higher.

Although this means you will will get less as the betfair odds will be longer it will also drop out those selections which won at less then $20. Its also a good complimentary filter to use as confirmation that the don scott markets are not out of whack with reality.

The problem with this filter is you need to do it at race time which does limit the system.

michaelg 1st January 2013 12:44 PM

U.B, you're right about having to be the computer, which does not suit me. I've had some profitable smiles that were high in the bookie's market and also the TAB's market. I would assume with some (hopefully) confidence there is a good reason(s) why D.Scott has rated them so poorly. However, it doesn't always work that way. Time will tell...

Today's selections:

Rosehill
2/3
6/11
8/14

Flemington
2/13
3/2
6/14
7/3

Gold Coast
1/10
2/1
3/4, 9
4/10
5/2
8/13

Morphetville
3/11
4/5
6/10
8/4, 14

Inverell
4/11
5/2, 3

Port Mac
5/8, 9, 10
6/8, 12

Ascot
2/6
3/6, 11
4/11
7/7, 8, 11
8/2, 3, 6, 10, 12, 16
9/1

Hanging Rock
2/7

Terang
3/1, 2, 5
6/9

Mornington
3/3, 8
7/7

The Ocho 1st January 2013 02:54 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
U.B, you're right about having to be the computer, which does not suit me.

You're right about not being a computer, it wouldn't suit me either. hehe :D

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
To date (23 days of laying the seletions) there have been 826 smiles from 842 selections for a profit of $178.64.

But seriously, you are going great guns with this mg. Well done. Keep it up.


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