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-   -   Lay Don Scott's Outsiders (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25652)

michaelg 1st January 2013 04:54 PM

Hi, T.O.

Yes, it's not going too bad. Today, there's been one accident so far (Pt Mac 5/8 - Unitab's sole 100 pointer), yet it's about $10 in front at the moment.

Correction - Rosehill 8/14 is not a selection because there's less than 9 runners in the race.

michaelg 1st January 2013 08:39 PM

A nightmare. From the 46 selections there were 4 accidents for a loss of $70.56.

There have now been 18 accidents from the 888 selections for a profit of $108.08. There's a lot of rebuilding to do, hopefully it's not the beginning of the end.

UselessBettor 1st January 2013 08:56 PM

michaelg,

bad runs happen. Just don't stop following this now because of it. Stopping now is what 99% of other punters would do.

SpeedyBen 1st January 2013 10:58 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Micheal,

How about 1 more filter. Only lay those that have a bookies odds of $20 or higher.

Although this means you will will get less as the betfair odds will be longer it will also drop out those selections which won at less then $20. Its also a good complimentary filter to use as confirmation that the don scott markets are not out of whack with reality.

The problem with this filter is you need to do it at race time which does limit the system.
I think that this is excellent advice for any longshot laying method, UB. I have previously posted in this thread that where ratings and the market are way out of whack the market will prove more accurate more often. A bot would be needed and I see that TheBetEngine is still available for $16 per month.

Mark 2nd January 2013 12:13 AM

As ever, no offence intended in any way to any poster on here, but laying outsiders 1 out is doomed to failure, as I pointed out at the start.
This particular method has a fantastic strike rate of 98% and is officially in trouble. The risk so far (@ $30 per lay) has been $26640 & the profit is just over $100, the risk/reward ratio is way out.

Good luck if you stick with it.

michaelg 2nd January 2013 07:56 AM

After yesterday's disaster I'm considering applying a price-limit for the selections, say of $50 or whatever. However I expect to continue as is, but limiting the price is just an option.

Yesterday's four accidents paid for the Win:

Morphetville 8/14 - $50
Pt Mac 5/8 - $9
Pt Mac 6/8 $13
Ascot 9/1 - $27

Mark, yes, laying outsiders is fraught with danger, however most of the method's accidents haven't been outsiders but been fancied in the real market, but unfortunately not Don Scott's.

I'll continue as is because it might just be a weak phase the method's currently going through, but as mentioned above limiting the prices is an option to consider.

Speedy Ben, fortunately this restriction can be applied to S.P., even early in the day.

michaelg 2nd January 2013 11:53 AM

Today's selections:

Newcastle
4/1, 7

Sale
3/3

Dombeen
4/10

Narrogin
1/4
2/4
4/9, 10
6/9, 10
7/9, 10

Murray Bridge
5/5, 6, 10
6/1
8/7, 8, 9

Sapphire Coast
4/12
7/11

SpeedyBen 2nd January 2013 02:05 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg

Speedy Ben, fortunately this restriction can be applied to S.P., even early in the day.
Michael
I see where you can limit your max odds but I can't see where you can limit your min odds at SP. Am I missing it?
My comment was in relation to the suggestion that you only lay over 20.0.

michaelg 2nd January 2013 02:50 PM

Sorry, Speedy Ben. You're right, I've never limited the odds on laying and when I saw the facility I assumed incorrectly.

That is now out of the question - pity.

michaelg 2nd January 2013 08:09 PM

There were 20 selections today for 20 smiles for a profit of $14.23.


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