He's another good example. Has there ever been a bigger certainty than Armstrong winning the Tour this year?

Perhaps, him winning it last year or the year before that.....

Great post Sportz.

Got us all thinking that is for sure. As you know I make my tennis predictions based on statistics and hopefully statistical certanties.

I think your theory works well in single events like AFL or a tennis match. However in events that take 5 days (cricket) or 2 weeks (Wimbeldon) have too many extra factors other than the actual sporting event. (My opinion only - no stats to back this up).

For example -rain is a factor in cricket and tennis players are injury prone or catch the flu.

Maybe we should keep this forum open and when an event happens that is a "statistical certainty" we could build a list.

Ps Whats the stats on the Wallabies in the next match?

Karla

Not very good. I haven't checked out Australia's record at this week's venue yet, but they've only won 1 of the last 11 tests in SA. I would suggest that they are a better chance of winning this week than they were last week. However, I'll have to look at it a bit more and see what the odds are.

I don't like going by h2h. Bookies know that's how squares think. The public places too much emphasis on head 2 head, and not the reasons why that head 2 head record is the way it is. The bookies usually always have the reasons behind the h2h factored in anyway. H2H can reflect an advantage one side has over another, but h2h itself isn't an advantage (unless you're hewitt vs federer).

If the bookies and punters had gone by the records, South Africa should have been no more than $1.40 in my opinion. A price of $2.00+ was a definite advantage.

tell me who to put all my money on and ill do it !!

rita last night on big brother was a guarantee to go

i had 1400 on her :O

Yeah, but she was only $1.05 or something, wasn't she?

yeh she was

Don't know if this qualifes as a "statistical certainity" but I'll state it anyway.


In the tennis tournament in LA, this week, when the #1 seed has won his first round match, he has also won his second round match .
Since 1978 the #1 seed has won 24 of 26 first round matches and won all 24 of the second round.

24 from 24 = 100%

Go Andre

Wow! That's some stat. He's got a lot of weight on his shoulders now. :)