Equine Investor,

Thanks for drawing attention to a problem in my figures. I'd only counted those to sixth last start. This being because it nets some 87% of placegetters.

I've added some more races to the same sample. Fuller (and double-checked) TOTAL figures, rounded out are:

PLACEGETTERS LAST START

Last start winners = 29%
2nd = 13%
3rd = 16%
4th = 14%
5th = 8%
6th = 7%
7th = 3%
8th = 3%
9th = 4%
10+ = 3%

87% of placegetters finished sixth or better.
80% finished 5th or better.

Last start placegetters placed in their next race 58% of the time.

Needs a bigger sample obviously but the trends are there.

Cheers

Hermes

On Saturday,

Almost every placegetter had ran 5th or better twice in past 4 starts.

Problem is so did half a dozen other horses each race.

The most successful numbers based on a couple of weeks of data were
1,2,4.
3 & 6 were next best.

Most had a place % of 40% or higher.

Quick system

1. 2 or more top 5 finishes in past 4 runs
2. No 1,2 or 4.
3. Place % of 40%+
4. Place div of $2+

Thanks for the advice freddy. You're right. Can't pick 'em all. But I was asking about statistical batches. The trouble is that the category "placegetter" is very broad. It includes a diverse range of horses that have few characteristics in common. I'm wondering if maybe a batch of 1st and 2nds only would be more than one third more stable, if you see what I mean? Maybe it is far easier to find meaningful trends in the 1st-2nds category because it is the third runner that upsets the trends???

I'Ii try out placegetters last two starts and see.

Quick system is worth a try Freddy. I'm having no trouble inventing systems that pursue the lines of least resistance in the stats but they run into trouble at the market. In most systems I'm trialling or have trialled it is hard to find the horses at $2 or better, or hard to find any volume of them. There's a couple every Sat. sure, but then you need discipline and most of the fun is gone...

Freddy,

Two or more places in last 4 starts.

Sample- 176 races
Total placegetters - 528
Qualifiers - 300
Non-qualifiers - 228

About 57% of placegetters in this sample have two or more places in last four starts.

Very similiar to "Nines", see my post above. Nines is an old-fashioned shortcut for extracting winners from the form guide. Add together the best three of last four starts. If total is nine or less, qualify. I know someone who uses "Nines" for trifecta selection with some success. At least, he collected last Sat. and I didn't...

Hermes

Freddy wrote:

"Almost every placegetter had ran 5th or better twice in past 4 starts. Problem is so did half a dozen other horses each race. "

That's the problem I'm finding with placegetter stats. As I say, they are a very diverse bunch, placegetters, with few characteristics to distinguish them from the pack. Exactly the problem.

I found a solution, but can't say what it is.

hermes, perhaps even though you are looking for place % etc, when you can't separate say 5 or 6 runners, then look at their average prizemoney per race which should give an indication of class, and also their win %.

This should sort out the wheat from the chaff and not all will be short odds. You may notice in the formguides that wins are not counted as places, so if you are backing for a place you should include wins in your place %.

Also your stats on saddlecloths 1,2,3 seem to be right and throws up some great place dividends, but your stats would be a lot higher if you only included handicaps and not WFA and Set weights. See what I am driving at? The handicapper usually gives the best horses the biggest weights, and this does not apply to set weights and WFA etc.

[quote]
On 2002-06-30 18:11, Equine Investor wrote:
You may notice in the formguides that wins are not counted as places, so if you are backing for a place you should include wins in your place %.

Unless you are using Irish formguides this is not correct. Wins are included in place %.

Freddy,

Have you checked out the Wizard formguide lately? Win% are seperate from place%.
eg. 1 win, 2 placings from 5 starts is written as 20% win and 40% place - and no, it's not Irish.