Gazman,

Yeah, that "aold"(sic) bloke that you spoke of may live a bit longer by abstaining.......or will it only seem longer........?

Cheers.

If losing bothers you, you are betting too much...and you wont win while ever you have that attitude .... bet what you can afford to lose and be happy with the entertainment value ..........If you want to win on a regular basis you are going to have to commit yourself to the task be disciplined work hard at it and still be prepared to lose ....Many times I have bet with confidence only to have my selection flogged unmercifully ...................Personally Ive found that horses find too many ways to lose ............Its very hard to buck the system... favs win 33% of the time so your behind the 8ball befre you start if your backing favs ..........I prefer sports betting I find I get more winners that way but thats just me.I havent bet on a horse since this ************ ridiculous television dispute started .................................

Short answer :walk away

Stix,
The only way I can suggest to help is do it the way I do, and that is set yourself a target you want to win on the day and stop.
In my case $400, but I nearly always finish up with more because of overs.
Some days the overs are very good say $650 up for the day, and if I feel like having a play around after getting my wages I will use a $100 and have $10 bets. The interesting thing about this is more often than not I will blow the $100 so just shows how my average day would pan out if I kept my normal size bet.
The only other way I can think of is to marry a filipina like I have and believe me you can't stop betting quick enough as there are more interesting things to do.
:rolleyes:

KenChar

Cheers..... enjoy your work.... !! lol !

Stix

how do you
 

betting too much or too often is a problem most punters have and this is caused (i think) by not setting a benchmark for the bet you are about to make.

i must admit i dont over complicate my method but it helps a lot to reduce the activity. it means unless there is some value there no bet is made.

i have always said on this forum that i only backed listed or group horses.

i also said recently that i use the barrier as a guide.

i also use a weight adjustment figure to assist as well.

but in the absence of the weight adjustment figure the margin beaten could be used.

so step one listed horse
step two barrier
step three margin.

the price must exceed the sum total of barrier plus margin.

if it doesnt then no bet.

when giving examples it is often a bit rich to show only the examples that work but to illustrate the argument in race 6 at eagle farm today.

cha cha damour 6+6 = 12 price $13.20
casual chick 3 + 4.7 = 7.7 price was around 12/1

another factor is use is that i multiply the figure by the number of years since qualifying in a listed race. this is because 80% of all horses that are listed or group placed and win a race have qualified in the last 12 months.
this leaves only 20% for over 1 year and this drops to 5% if it is longer than 2 years.

so you can see the need to look for some value from these horses.

in case there is a query of the validity of listed qualifications of some brisbane horses i qualify horses that win the $50,000 races due to lower number of listed and group races in brisbane.
i need starters up there as the racing generally a treat compared to other states.
also sircolo in the first 2 + 1.8 and paid around $6.

this is how backed shania dane on saturday.
the price emphasised the value of the bet won group 3 last start barrier 1 john hawkes. 50/1 fairly tempting.

part of my problem with punting is that i used to know too much class of the horse this horse was better than that. barriers meant nothing.
good form was better than bad form and i believe this to be very true still
but knowing too much puts you off winners rather than on to them.

two or three good things come out of this method
1 . is that I let a lot of horses go due to shorter prices and wide barriers
2. i back recently performed horses more often unless they are long priced.
3. many days there are no bets.
4. i get better prices.
5. also betting on the racetab sites i also miss a lot of races due to the slowness of the site which mostly saves me money.
(couldnt help throwing that in) happened again today. fortunately the horse lost.

but set a benchmark and follow it patiently be prepared to let the races go that you havent measured.

it feels good to watch a race with horses in that you have consciously decided not to back and then watch them lose.

good punting.

great thread stix
 

hey xanadu and all
the reason why this stuck in my mind for so many years was it was one mans way of dealing with a situation where everyone does opposite (he probably had more meetings with Dr. Melbourne Bitter than the pope had in his confessional bay). (ps. stix - you would want to see what I pay for a carton of melbourne up here it's a double slab in Mav's terms - but hey, you get what you pay for. But there has to be something good to come out of Melbourne... lol).


cheers, gaz

topsy, good post,

In my own form study I concentrate on class and beaten margins from last start, usually eliminating any runner beaten more than two lengths at it's previous run. Don't forget that it may have finished seventh, beaten 1.8 lengths in a 'blanket" finish........although the astute punter will recognise this as a very creditable run. This is the main flaw in mechanical selection methods which may stipulate: "must have finished no further back than fifth or sixth last start...", yet, the run indicated to the keen form student that it had "back me next start written all over it!"
I've taken note of your barrier position comments because recently I have fallen foul of backing horses in an outside barrier, believing that the skilful jockey on board could overcome this adversity, however, it is a big ask isn't it to be competitive after drawing the extreme outside and having to be "used up" to come over and take up a reasonable position.
Your comments on the SP also confirm that at "barrier rise" the prices being offered generally represent a true reflection of the particular runner's chances.

Cheers

sir dex
 

as we were saying.

barrier 1 won last start group 2.

off course we knew it couldnt win and it was first up and that all the other horses were better or did we know too much.

i take my $27 winner with thanks.

You took big unders topsy.

sir dex
 

i bet on the www.racetab website thats (worlds worst website) and take what it pays.
i am not sophisticated enough to chase odds.

did get another grandway shogun at good odds.
barrier one and beaten a length last start.

was a reasonable day so have to be happy with that.

i was really reflecting on the easy method that i explained earlier and that being too clever with our knowledge probably works against us.

missed out with life's a bounty though but only just.
regards