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-   -   Roulette system promises big returns (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=10667)

punter57 25th August 2005 08:04 PM

Re the "edge" Mr J (post 6), it's also well known that a disadvantageous run (ie 30 heads in a row) can kick in in a genuine 50/50 game like coin-tossing.ie there is NO edge but you still lose.It is your inability to finance a negative progression which will kill. It can also happen when you have a probability ADVANTAGE. For example, at Roulette the house decides to pay 40-1 on single numbers tonight as it's the casino's 40th anniversary. You have to nominate ONE number only and, unluckily for you it only comes 9 times in 370 spins (not enough at Level stakes), instead of the expected 10 times. You use a negative progression BUT hit the limit. Uh oh; no house edge and the LIMIT brings you undone. You might argue that 370 spins is not enough for the "advantage" to show up, which is true. a positive progression, however, might still make you a winner, if for example you got a two or more of YOUR number close together.
The Zero has the REAL function of wiping out all the non single-number bets each time it appears in roulette. Unfortunately in any normal evening's roulette, if the zero DOES NOT APPEAR the house will still win due to the IRREGULAR appearance of the other numbers/bets forcing gamblers TO THE LIMIT, if negatively progressing.
In the coin tossing above, if you were on Tails, the thirty heads would simply be 30 straight 1-unit losses if using a positive progression. If you were lucky enough to be on heads in a no-limit game, it would be billions in YOUR favour.
As you can see "house advantage" is not the problem but the LIMIT, being imposed

The Fan. If you played Roulette with a positive progression and got to the limit, you would probably be ahead. (unless you were unlucky). You should have a pre-set win target and if not there yet; keep playing until you either DO get there OR you lose the lot. Once at your goal (you will probably overshoot at first) either leave immediately or else play the "overshoot" until
you fall back to your goal (and leave) OR get further ahead and then play on until you either fall back to the first "overshoot"(then leave) OR win again and get still further ahead. Then play until you either fall back to your second "overshoot" (then leave) oR win again and go still,still further ahead etc etc. In other words you are climbing a ladder. Cheers.

Mr J 26th August 2005 02:57 PM

"It is your inability to finance a negative progression which will kill"

Doesn't really matter if you don't have the edge. Either variance busts you quickly or the house edge gets you in the longrun. A negative progression creates huge turnover so it is quite reasonable that someone can lose it to just the house edge (ie not because of variance).

Progressions are silly anyway because even if you actually had an advantage you are still overbetting (unless you are heavily bankrolled) :)

karla909 27th August 2005 05:42 PM

Your a funny guy MR J.


Laughed all the way to the grave.


Seriously have you ever tried varying your bets at blackjack. Funny how it suddenly attracts all the bosses. Also, many may skoff at your suggestion that roulette croupiers can position a roulette ball. I once watched a training session (they didn't know I spoke French) and some of those guys in Monte Carlo, I reckon can place a ball within 5 numbers 90% of the time.


Love your humour.

Karla

punter57 28th August 2005 06:45 AM

Don't know if it was THAT funny K909, what Mr J had to say. Anyway I'm of the opinion (maybe wrong) that the "edge" is to beat anyone playing level stakes (over time) and to simultaneously stop people playing all the numbers/both sides of the colours etc to their advantage. The "limit" is the casino's second line of defence, specifically to stop progression systems.
Mr J. Your first post in this thread was to do with progressions. That's the only reason I mentioned them.Cheers.


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