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Betsy 6th September 2005 10:27 PM

I've always thought about betting on a larger scale than I am at the moment. At 17 I can't really whip together a large amount of cash, but I hope to in the future. I don't want to do it full time as with tennis betting you only really need around a cpl of hours to do the form. Whilst working fulltime (trying to get into pharmacy) I would love to dedicate a reasonable portion of funds to tennis betting.

Would a ROI of 20% (current ROI for ATP betting: see ATP Tennis Thread) be sufficient in order to make a decent amount of cash from punting on the side? Im not really into any staking plans, would I have to look into this in greater detail if I were to dedicate more funds to tennis betting? I reckon making some scratch from doing what you love is the way to go and I'd love to be able to do it later on down the track when Ive settled down.

At the moment, Im just betting with pretty small amounts whilst trying to sharpen my skills. Any advice on anything to do with tennis betting and large stakes would be great, whether its personal experiences or just staking information

Cheers
Betsy

rabbitz 7th September 2005 06:10 AM

i started betting recently starting with a set bank and going 5 or 10% as a stake,i'm going with afl,nrl,ukrl,baseball.am hesitant with tennis or soccer
am generally doing ok.well put it this way i've increased the bank 600% in a month but have had 138 bets and if i put it on a graph it would look like an ecg but its fun and my original bank was small but it gives me an interest in whatever game im watching.i havent taken any real big dividends but am going the small dividend(sure thing type bet)
Cheers

saratoga samchaz 7th September 2005 08:10 AM

Hey there Mad, In a way I'm a huge NFL fan, but then again I'm kinda jaded after years of working the "right" side. I'll offer this advice immediately. Betting on the NFL has become much easier for the player than the bookmaker. I watched the game change before my eyes. I mean I lived it, for real. The glory days of booking in the 80's are gone. It is now a punter's game(no the position, no pun intended). The lines in the NFL are soft as compared to BI (before internet). For example, how would I know anything about Aussie horse racing if it wasn't for the computer? INFORMATION previously available to only the ones in the know is now available to all. And to give the player a further edge, he has the luxury of studying the games when he wants as diligintley as he wants. Not the bookie. He's too busy, working to grab a 10% advantage, to monitor every line move, injury, and weather pattern. The book relies on the computer to update his odds before he gets burnt with bad lines and it's a tough job. In the 80's, I would have a line service guy call me from Vegas anytime some weird move happened. Now you will see these lines move crazily when before the player had no clue what the line should be.

I'm not taking anything this year, but I might play some games. I will still be following it though and I gave alot of my customers to my friend so I can monitor how the action goes. I could write a book (again, no pun intended) on the stuff, so if you have any questions, feel more than free to ask.

PS: 2004-2005 NFL was the worst season for Bookies ever. It was atrocious and here is why. It may even get worse for the books. There are 6 above average teams and 24 very bad ones. Vegas can't make the lines high enough. I can't believe I got demolished by square players giving the points, but it happened. These teams are 1) Philadelphia Eagles- They may be considered chokes when it comes to winning the Super Bowl but they cover week in and week out for last few years. 2) Indianapolis Colts-- Not only do they cover, they also go over the total every week and that's what ninny bettors play regiously (favorite to the over in a parlay---Pays 3-1 odds).
3)New England Patriots-- Super Bowl champs a couple times over are now America's team 4)Pittsburgh Steelers--- They may have overachieved last year with a rookie QB but they are still very talented.

Looking over the NFL, I don't really see any other great teams. Sure some, teams may surprise but as a whole you should be able to play these teams as favorites and turn a nice buck.

Be mindful of KEY injuries at all positions, not just the glamour positons like Quaterback, running back and wide receiver. American football is won by a simple plan. The better your offensive line is, the more you will score and the better your defensive line, the less they will score. I couldn't tell you the name of ONE offensive lineman right off the top of my head, but it's a cohesive unit that accounts for pushing their team up the field. Obviosly, the above mentioned teams have great lines. I would never in a million years believe I'm telling somebody that the way to win in the NFL is by betting favorite, but I am. The rub on this is don't bet ALOT of favs, just the superior teams. PSS The lines this week look fishy (week #1) Eagles-1 1/2 over ATLANTA FALCONS NE PAT"S-7 1/2 over oakland raiders Colts -3 over BALTIMORE RAVENS and STEELER's -7 over tennessee titans
Home teams in caps Eagles line looks low but they are at ATL and there has been dissensin out the wazoo during the past month and a half of training camp. Shouldn't matter though. They want to win it all and have lots of talent. I don't know what the New Orleans Saints are gonna do this year but, in all honesty, they've got a lot on their minds and the games won't mean much to them. They are +7 at Carolina this week

saratoga samchaz 7th September 2005 08:15 AM

YO FAN, Great move to have as many books as possible. Shop! I can understand not betting with the black cat book. LOL

thefan 7th September 2005 06:37 PM

Betsy is 17? Im 21. One of my biggest lessons in life was to lose. Dealing with loss and temptation itself. It took me 3 years to discipline myself,because I knew that if i wanted to be ahead i had too. I remember the days when I would back all my winnings into another bet and this routine went on with loss after loss. Today,its a different story. I needed motivation to keep me from gambling all the money away.This was to gather money into a seperate savings account for a deposit on a home. Ive kept my bank at the same amount and withdraw once the bank goes over $150. I believe all wins doesnt matter how small is still better than nothing. Good luck to everyone,because if you do suceed your only a minority of the population.

Mr J 10th September 2005 02:40 PM

"nd just last week when i needed that 1 point which i could of gotten with another book maker in the knights dragons game."

Thefan, whether that point is worth much depends on the line you take, whether it's a key number and if it's an odd number. Nearly all odd numbers are worthless in NRL. Eg, it doesn't matter whether you have +4.5 or +5.5. Games very rarely end on 5. On the other hand, having +6.5 is MUCH better than+5.5. since it covers the 6. The key numbers in NRL are pretty much every even number up until 14 (lol), and the 1 and 7. Key numbers aren't really worth that much in NRL as compared to NFL, it's just that non key numbers are worth nothing at all.

"I always, repeat, always take the points over the divvie - always."

This might save you from some frustrating losses/draws, but it's not the best way to bet. You have to find out what a point is worth, and then compare it to the better price you could get, and then choose whichever one has the larger edge.

"Do take into account youve done the research youself rather than taking tips off people on forums and making a bet. I believe its your money,and you only have yourself to blame if the tips go wrong"

In general yeh. Don't just follow someone posting on a forum. You can do so if you have done the research and decide it's worth the risk, but without something like longterm&100% legit records to analyze, it's best to stay clear.

Eg if someone had hit 55% (against the spread) over a few hundred picks and you KNEW they had achieved this, then there's a 90% chance that they are at least breakeven vs -110 ($1.91).

"Always withdraw winnings...keep your bank at a set amount."

I totally disagree, and know alot of other people would too. You are depriving yourself of alot of profit. If you manage your bankroll/risk well then there is NO reason to withdraw money. By reinvesting winnings, you experience the 9th wonder of the world- compound interest :D

"Would a ROI of 20% (current ROI for ATP betting: see ATP Tennis Thread) be sufficient in order to make a decent amount of cash from punting on the side?"

You make make plenty off MUCH less.

"i started betting recently starting with a set bank and going 5 or 10% as a stake,"

I wouldn't go above 5%. I know you do it for fun etc so you probally don't want to be betting 2%, but you have to be hitting over 57% to be betting 10% of your bankroll. Aussie markets are softer than US markets (unless you bet at the TAB lol), but it's still very hard to do better than 55%.

saratoga samchaz 11th September 2005 03:24 AM

Mr. J et. al, a general rule of thumb in the NFL is a 1/2 point is worth another 10% (or at least that is what you are charged to BUY the "hook" (a half point).)

Like Mr. J said, Key numbers are where you want to buy the half point (3, 7, 10, and even 14) Not that it can't come into play but the law of averages are in your favor with key numbers.

There is also a chart for betting the money line (Divvie) and it's comparison to the point spread. For example, -140 = -3 POINTS or +120 = +2- pts. Not exact but a close example. Actually this applies for college football as well. This is the real football to make money on as the information you have can give you quite an edge on soft lines and lazy bookies.

saratoga samchaz 11th September 2005 03:35 AM

It is really nice to not have to worry about taking action on this beautiful Sat. in Delaware. For the first time since 1989, I am not handcuffed to a phone, repeating lines for 50 some odd games, and stressing over every hungover college kids' stupid mistake on the field! LOL Of course, I miss the benefits and the constant action.

Mr J 11th September 2005 10:19 AM

I was talking NRL ;)

"Mr. J et. al, a general rule of thumb in the NFL is a 1/2 point is worth another 10%"

Obviously depends on the line. Not worth much at all going from 8.5 to 9, but if you can get it on the 3 that's huge. Because not all points are equal there's also some decent EV to be had in selling points.

"Key numbers are where you want to buy the half point (3, 7, 10, and even 14)"

The 3 for 20 cents or less. 7,14 and 17 for 10 cents or less. 10 isn't generally worth it.

For anyone thinking of betting NFL, Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong is a good place to start.

saratoga samchaz 11th September 2005 10:22 AM

Understood J. Same theory no matter the game,eh. depending on the scoring system. Who is the best team right now in NRL?


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