Hi Facts only,

If we have an opinion on something, we are entitled to give it. If you choose to ignore it, that is your decision. I will continue to post opinions, heresay and myths to my heart's content and encourage others to do so as well.

This is an open forum with only a few rules about personal attacks, as long as the opinions are racing related they are fine by me.

Just my meaningless opinion. Sorry if it doesn't suit you.

Placegetter

EI,
The tables we put in Punt to Win the last two weeks had all the runners at 59kg.+ in the 4 main meetings on Saturday included.
Cheers.
PS What about National Saint yesterday winning with 63.5kg!

The most important aspect to consider when looking at statistics is not the % of winners which fit the given criteria but how this % relates to the % of starters that fit the criteria.

eg. last start winners (the numbers are made up!)

25% winners are last start winners
but 30% runners are last start winners

This means that last start winners actually won less races than would be expected (30%)

Here is a list of the % of starters that carried the given weight.

<52kg 1.5%
52-54.5 59.5%
55-59 34.6%
>59kg 1.9%

This is from races run everywhere by all classes (including jumpers) which account for the majority of weights >61kgs.

The challenge is to post the most accurate figures as to the % of winners that fall into each category.

The figures posted by thekey prove that horses with 59kgs or more have a high strike rate relative to the no of starters. If you took out jumpers, the strike rate would be even higher. This suggests that horses "can" handle weight when they have the necessary class.

1.9% of starters (if you took out jumpers maybe 1.5%)

5% of winners.

Rob

Those figures (5%) quoted earlier in this thread are different from my stats.

thekey,

What are your figures and what races are they based on?

Something is wrong with the statistics and maths here.

If only 1.9% of starters carry greater than 59kgs that is less than two per 100 races. Highly questionable.

Then if 5% of those horses win, that is less than 1 in a thousand races!!!



[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-04 15:41 ]

example
1000 races with 12 horses per race - that's 12,000 horses in total
2% of 12,000 is 20*12 = 240

Those heavily weighted horses won 5% of 1000 races which is 50 races.

50/240 = about 1 in 5 or 20% roughly.

Certainly not 1/1000!!!

EI - I think the figures quoted were 1.9% of all runners carry 59+kg but 5% of all winners carry this weight. Of course if this figures were correct you could potentially make money by backing any horse carrying 59+ kg as their strike rate is over double what it should be (depending, of course on the ave div). I suspect that the 1.9% figure is too low but don't have any concrete figures to back this up.

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-04 15:54 ]

O.K. but there needs to be a common denominator, you can't compare apples with oranges.

Is it winners per race, winners per QUALIFYING starter, or winners per starter?
When you look at say % of favs saluting, it's favourite per race. The figures all need to be consistant to be able to draw an equivalent evaluation.

Over the last two weekends of racing there were 8 qualifying starters which carried in excess of 59kg.
Not one of those horses saluted, which adds further weight(forgive the pun) to my conclusion that the amount of prizemoney a horse has won has no reflection on it's ability to carry weight.
The ability of a horse to carry weight comes from internal strength and body mass.
Now you could draw conclusions that horses weighing over 1000kg for example, are more likely to be able to carry the extra weight than a horse weighing 750kg. But to say that a horse can carry the extra weight and still be able to win because of the amount of prizemoney it has won is like saying that Greg Norman is a good golfer so therefore he must be a good swimmer.
No logical correlation at all.

The only way to assess correctly if a horse is able to handle the weight is to see if it has carried and won with that weight over the same distance and in the same track conditions.

Anyhow I am going to do some statistical research on this and post it here soon.
Will post actual researched statistics.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-04 16:05 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-04 16:13 ]