Yep, right on. Doing the form and selecting the winner.

Well I never thought about selling a method, isn't that like writing a book on how to make a million, hoping to sell enough copies to actually make the million? No, I am far more practical than that, I want to build a system, that will give me true financial independence, whilst at the same time letting me do something I have loved all my life and 'PAID' to participate in.

I accept your definition of making a profit over time, but raise the question of how you can possibly put a price on the years it took you to amass the knowledge to even come close to making a 'real' system that makes a profit over time. What price do you factor in their and have you deducted that from your bottom line, and if so, perhaps you are no longer in profit. If you made a profit, was it a fluke, a convergence of positive elements, or just luck? If it worked in the first 5 years will it fall over in the next five years?

I doubt that many people ever have a static (Finished) system that yields long term profits. I suspect that a system would need constant tweaking and constant appraisal and modifying, to mimic the changing nature of the industry it is based on.

As the rules and trends change, so must the system makers, to me this is simple logic. I will never say my system is built, or finished, because I know that would be the start of the end. I would opt for a dynamic system that had the ability to change as conditions demanded it.

There are some factors that you just can't quantify, some factors that can't be anticipated nor converted to a numeral or string in a program. For example, take the effect of betting exchanges, television wars, government tax changes and so on. These things have a profound and long term effect on the industry, thus the industry actually changes intrinsically, therefore the system must also change by some degree to keep pace with the ever changing landscape of what we call the racing industry. Not to mention the menace of drugs in sport and people simply not trying to win. These are the great unknown intangibles, some you can try to adjust for and some you just have to accept will never go away.

I accept everyone's voice, for there is truly no right or wrong, its not about the math whatsoever, its not about the ability of the participants, its not even about the money, it is about the entire game, lock stock and barrel, or as they say in the classics, "the whole shooting match', or is that 'Box and Dice'?

My point is, a system is never finished...not really.

Tailwag

Hi Tailwag
 

"I accept your definition of making a profit over time, but raise the question of how you can possibly put a price on the years it took you to amass the knowledge to even come close to making a 'real' system that makes a profit over time."

in that learning period, (which never ends) a lot of time and some money was thrown at ideas that didnt work out...nothing ventured, nothing gained. Months and months spent dry running methods..no computers back then...

You are correct..I cant put a price on that..nor my time every Saturday and travel to a metropolitan course every race day, and public holiday, for many years.... When I moved overseas, my methods were instantly unworkable to usable for me, and the biggest thrill for me was being able to claim some of my life back..namely all the Saturdays! What a relief to not have to work Saturdays nor arrange my life and family around public holidays..

I used other people's knowledge rather than just my own. (Anyone who doesnt do their own form but uses other peoples ratings is in same catagory.). I still maintain that one does not have to be a form expert to win at racing. Luckily for me, there are some great form analysists out there, so I dont have to get too involved in that arena. The methods I use today are nothing special..use someone elses ratings and filter them, selecting horses which appear to represent greater than average value for money..

One does have to have nerves of steel and discipline though, and it is these which are usually the undoing..

You are under no illusion that your system will change over time..
While my original plan appears to still work twenty five years on, changing circumstances has forced modification.

However, my tastes have changed also.. I'm seeking less action these days, so I intend to introduce further restrictions to arrive at less bets. I introduced Brisbane into my betting a few months ago, to spread my risk, but now I realise that I dont really want the extra workload.

To me, the primary objectives in developing a new system should include

1. Objectivity... black and white criteria..not open to interpretaion.

2.Simplicity....cant stress that one enough.. a system is only as good as the ability of operator to ensure accuracy in selecting. The simpler it is the less chance of errors. and the more enjoyable it can be. With so many race meetings today...this perhaps more important today than ever before.

3. Choosing materials and resources that appear to be here for the long haul, to minimise the incidents of change..

W924
 

Couldn,t agree more on keeping it simple.

In my experience complicated methods invariably lead to short priced favorites.

Cheers.
darky.

Hi Darkydog2002 and Tailwag
 

"In my experience complicated methods invariably lead to short priced favorites."

I imagine that may well be true.. Picking winners aint nearly as difficult as correctly backing horses which will produce a long term profit.

Tailwag, good luck with your efforts ...a fresh look at racing and a periodical re-evaluation of every "Given" or maxim in racing may give you an edge..

Thank you very much. Good luck to you w924

Tailwag

I'm all for tweaking systems, that's what makes them work better (hopefully), but if you can get a set of iron clad rules to work by (at least until the next tweak) that's wonderful. I find nothing more annoying than having a system which forces you to make decisions on a race by race basis. Shall I back this one... I'm not to sure about that one... etc.
If you trust your system implicitly it probably means it's doing it's job and being successful. If you're dithering over every bet it recommends the system probably isn't ready yet and you need to work on it some more before you use it.

KV

I think that generally we (well me anyway) were referring to the beginning stages of a system, if as you say you have one that works and works well, I agree, you would be better off leaving it alone.

Tailwag