Stats. do not bear out this hard line that beaten margin is far superior to last start placed finish.

56% of winners were beaten less than two lengths last start.
The stats are much the same for last start placegetters.
In addition 72% horses that win have been placed at least one of their last two starts.

I agree with the logic that a close up unplaced run can be superior to a well beaten placed run, but I think just saying one is far superior to the other is not backed up by history.

Good Punting

Top Rank,
My point was about the effects of finishing position on odds next start, not finishing position stats.
Generally speaking, a win or place last start will have more effect on a runners next start odds than say running 7th., but within 2 lengths of the winner in the blanket finishes that are so common now.

HOW ABOUT.
 

Weight RISE no more than 3 kg (taken from limit weight )

On pace runner.

Cheers.
darky.

Crash


Understand that was your point but am not sure that was the point of other posters.

Gotcha and no worries Top. Thanks for the clarification.

The stats you provided dont prove a thing.

The question we need to ask is how many horses finished within 2 lengths compared to how many were placed last start.

Only once you break down the two approaches into % of winners to actual runners can one approach be declared superior.

My money is on within 2 lengths being a clearly superior method.

As with EVERYTHING in racing (and life) there is no simple answer. Neither is "Right" and the other "Wrong" as a tool of analysis.

For example, if a horse runs 2nd beaten 8 lengths, is his run the same as a horse beaten 8 lengths into 13th place, with the same weight in the same class? Clearly, the 2nd place is superior.

If a horse runs 12th beaten 2.5 lengths, is that run the same as a horse beaten 25 lengths into 12th place? Clearly not.

There's no right, no wrong. There's both.

Duritz,

Why is running 2nd by 8L different to running 13th by 8L?

What if the 2nd was in a class 1 race and the 13th was in a Group 1.

Even allowing for everything to be the same, class, weight etc...they both are equal.

If i had a foot race with you and beat you by 8 L...whether you finished 2nd in the race or 13th..i would be 8 lengths better than you!

Yes. There is a difference though. The horse that finished 2nd by 8 lengths will start shorter next run than the horse that ran 13th by 8 lengths.

8 lengths is a long way back though, I don't think I would back either. But as far as value goes, I would take the 13th every time.

There are a few points that I would consider.

1. The pattern of the race, did the horse weaken to finish 13th because it led all the way on a breakneck speed battle for the front. Or did it not give a yelp at all - at the tail of the field and never made ground.

2. Was the horse that won far far superior, therefore magnifying the margin.

3. How fit was the horse, did it go around over suitable distance.

If a horse ran 8 lengths behind the leader and finished last, this is a far poorer performance than finishing 2nd 8 lengths behind, one has to consider the class of the opposition, but in one scenario the horse beat maybe 10 other horses, in the other scenario, they all beat him.

A very important factor in my opinion.