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-   -   Neural Ratings (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=11832)

wesmip1 17th November 2005 03:05 PM

Chinbok,

I see you said Career Performance and Prize Money are the best ratings out of the list for selecting winners.

What results do you get if the horse in in top 2 career Performance and top 2 prize money ? Or even top 1 Career Performance and top 1 Prize Money ?

I assume this would improve on just top 1 career perf or just top 1 Prize money.

Thanks

crash 17th November 2005 05:34 PM

"What results do you get if the horse in in top 2 career Performance and top 2 prize money ? Or even top 1 Career Performance and top 1 Prize Money ?"

A very short priced favorite:-)

Dirk Gently 20th November 2005 05:37 PM

I guess why I give a 5 to the JT is that is a factor that is not readily available unless you are using neurals. I've been using them with some success but I don't bet on slow/heavy tracks, maidens, 2yo or 3yo until after Xmas and I don't bet unless the price is atleast $4 for the win and them bet for the place. Any idea how the "$" figure is calculated?
If you want to quote a part of a post just click the quote buton on that post.
Cheers, Dirk

moeee 21st November 2005 07:36 PM

Now look here!
You are pretty much going to get a minus 10% loss because you are landing on selections that are averaging that amount under the odds.
If you want to improve your POT,you need to get some sort of minimum price acceptable for your selections.
I know all the stuff,only it don't work for me because I am a gamblerholic and deserve to lose.
Plus I got bad luck.I fell on my head at 4 years of age.

kenchar 21st November 2005 08:29 PM

Moeee,

My most humble apologies for the post I wrote about your flat head.
I felt that guilty I deleted it.

Again so sorry.

Dirk Gently 22nd November 2005 11:46 AM

Hey Moeee, We still haven't had that Saturday-showdown punting challenge!
Good to see you're still roaming wild and haven't been got at by the G.A death squads!

Chinbok 22nd November 2005 03:17 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by wesmip1
Chinbok,

I see you said Career Performance and Prize Money are the best ratings out of the list for selecting winners.

What results do you get if the horse in in top 2 career Performance and top 2 prize money ? Or even top 1 Career Performance and top 1 Prize Money ?

I assume this would improve on just top 1 career perf or just top 1 Prize money.

Thanks

Hi Wesmip,

Excl 2yo, fillies, and races with >3 1st starters gives:

Top 2 CP, Top 2 $
Bets 17414
Wins 4231
SR 24.3%
Pot -11.4%

Top 1 CP, Top 1 $
Bets 6180
Wins 1745
SR 28.2%
Pot - 13.5%

If you added Top Jockey and Crs rating
Bets 488
Wins 197
SR 40%
Pot 3%

This is a more realistic number of bets over this time frame and is similar to a system I'm using now. If you're betting favourites (which top CP and top $ will do) you need a good SR.

Cheers

Chinbok 22nd November 2005 03:23 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirk Gently
I guess why I give a 5 to the JT is that is a factor that is not readily available unless you are using neurals. I've been using them with some success but I don't bet on slow/heavy tracks, maidens, 2yo or 3yo until after Xmas and I don't bet unless the price is atleast $4 for the win and them bet for the place. Any idea how the "$" figure is calculated?
If you want to quote a part of a post just click the quote buton on that post.
Cheers, Dirk

Hi Dirk,

I've never looked into the $ figure - I assumed it was a derivation of API or total prizemoney earnt.

On the analysis I've done, I can't see any degradation in results on wet tracks. Sometimes they even perform better. None of my systems take into account the track condition or the WT rating. This may be a bad thing long term???

Cheers

moeee 22nd November 2005 06:50 PM

THAT NEURAL PROGRAM LOOKS LIKE THE POT OF GOLD I WAS LOOKING FOR.
HOW COME EVERYBODY ISN'T MILLIONAIRES BY USING IT?

Sportz 22nd November 2005 08:47 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chinbok
Metropolitan venues only
Distance = 1200m
Highest Time Rater (ignore race if 2 or more = top rater)
<3 first starters
<4 first up (first uppers don’t have a Time rating)

Has a 20% SR from over 700 bets and 12% pot (Unitab div). Would be > 20% with best tote.


Do you count Ipswich as a metropolitan track??? If so, then R7-6 looks like a selection there tomorrow.

If not, then I guess these are the only selections for tomorrow:
Cant R2-5
Cant R6-2
Ascot R7-5

Is that right???


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