OK thanks Kenchar.

Keeping it simple [KISS] or 'as it happens' on any day of the week I guess, is a good way to use the rules too. My problem is I only have Saturdays that I know I can set aside any time to place a bet just before the jump, so I personally anyway am looking at this system for Sat. only use.

Might be OK to extend to 4 races if there are that many maidens with a 2 and a 1/2 unit final bet. I have no idea of the average Fav. win price for Sat. Maiden races [or weekly either], to work out the best progression to apply. Any help there would be appreciated from someone with the data to work that out over 12mths. [or longer].

My suggestion for staking progression is only that. A reasonable starting point perhaps, which can be altered to suit the individual punters style.

Here's a bit of database info to give you heart.


Backing the SP favorite in all NSW races and putting the bet on the NSW TAB you would get 89.8% of your money back with a strike rate of 33.3% (over 44000 races all days all courses).
Backing the SP favorite in all NSW maiden races and putting the bet on the NSW TAB you would get 93.6% of your money back with a strike rate of 35.6% (over 11650 races all days all courses).
Backing the SP favorite in all NSW non-maiden races and putting the bet on the NSW TAB you would get 88.4% of your money back with a strike rate of 32.5% (over 32400 races all days all courses).
Not a money making prospect in itself but it proves the maiden favorites do better than favorites overall.

Why choose by SP and report by NSW Tab? I already had a program written which almost did the job and only took me 5 minutes to put the maiden clause in. Laziness.

KV

Sometimes you wont know which horse is the favourite until after they jump

Thanks Kenny,

Very useful info. with a bit of filtering and stopping when striking a winner using a moderate progression for staking only to 3 or 4 races, a good improvement on SR could be achieved. How good would be idle speculation.

I have looked at quite a few Sat. only results and see that sticking to 'good' condt. has a better hit rate than other condt. Mainly due to the fact it's almost impossible to know in advance how most of the runners will go in other condt. beside good. Useually we are talking fair quality horses [young] in Sat. maiden races. More SR improvements could be anticipated here also.

It would be hard to get your fingers burnt with this and it might make a bit of dough too. Something for me anyway for Sat. to play with. I'm not trying to set it up as a main betting proposition. For those who have the time and interest to do that, I'm sure [as Kenchar points out] it can be done.

Cheers, Crash

Crash,

Just as a point of interest, using two tabs and two books to get best available odds my average divi at this stage $2.93.

ROT for runners <=2/1 SP (Fractional Odds) in Maidens 1998 - last July

98.5% Sunday
93.9% Monday
94.2% Tuesday
100.1% Wednesday
95.6% Thursday
99.3% Friday
88.7% Saturday

Hi JFC,

Well according to your figures Sat. seems to be the poor boy here. Still, maybe with a 3/4 race only progression [normally I swear progressions are hopeless for most betting] and stopping at a winner, I might be able to improve on those figures substantially. I'll give it a run anyway. No big danger.

Thanks for those figures JFC. Very informative.

Results for today where:

Vic. Park [good] R1 Fav. $1.50. O/Lay 1unit. Return 1.5units
Canterbury [good] R3 Fav. $2.50. O/lay 4.5units. Return 5units
Sandown [slow] R3 Fav. $1.80. O/lay 4.5units. Return 3.6units
G/coast [heavy] R1 Fav. $3.90 [big field] O/lay 1unit. Return 3.9units

Only loss was Sandown: 0.9 of a unit loss.
Total outlay 11units. Return 14units. 3unit profit. a reasonable POT if backing all these tracks.

A 4 race progression would be a bad move considering expected payout range. 3 races max.
Naturaly, better odds could be obtained that those above and would probably add a unit or two to profit.

Examining the Saturday Maiden runners <=2/1 more closely where Tab Limited operates:

96.5% Newcastle/Kembla
99.6% Gold Coast/Toowoomba
100+% Victoria (small sample)

So it looks like the Saturday Maidens you can actually bet on are fine for favourites.

My data base tells me that the 1st 3 races for Maidens SP Favs produced the highest SR ,for some reason, maybe because the field sizes are usually smaller than the other race Nos.

So if one is chasing Favs in Maiden events , its probable a strong idea to target the 1st 3 racers only of any meeting 7 days a week.