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-   -   A maths question (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=12457)

La Mer 3rd February 2006 06:44 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by DR RON
Hi La Mer, the 4 horses are actually the top 4 horses in ranked order of my selection system that I am experimenting with. The top ranked runs a place 48.5 % of the time and so on. The point regARDING THE CLASS THEY RUN IN DOSENT REALLY HAVE AN EFFECT AS the results come from horses running in similar classes. Thanks for the replies anyway gents, as I will continue my trek towards the Holy Grail.


Now that you've explained the aspect Dr. Ron, that changes things. Have you or can you convert the ranking into prices? If so then you can then work out the chance of each runner to run a placing. Otherwise you can convert the actual strike rates into prices & go from there.

The DOS version of Price Predictor has a module that does this.

DR RON 3rd February 2006 06:47 PM

Marcus, can you sort those runners into the ones where they had those figures for the same class of races as the one they were about to race in. For example if they had a 35% win and 60% place record in open handicaps and then ran in an open handicap woul;d their strike rate and return be any better. I would guess that they would . As if their figures were gained in lower class races then they would not be expected to perform as well in higher class, if you understnd what I'm gettting at.

marcus25 3rd February 2006 07:21 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by DR RON
Marcus, can you sort those runners into the ones where they had those figures for the same class of races as the one they were about to race in. For example if they had a 35% win and 60% place record in open handicaps and then ran in an open handicap woul;d their strike rate and return be any better. I would guess that they would . As if their figures were gained in lower class races then they would not be expected to perform as well in higher class, if you understnd what I'm gettting at.

Dr Ron!
Yes I can, but that would involve programming, not only running a simple query.
If you are convinced in your heart of hearts that it has promise, I will do it.

But if it is only a fishing expedition, then I regretfully decline.
No hard feelings I hope.
I do not sell anything, do not charge for my time, but one must be realistic.

Also bear in mind, that the final selections would depend on your particular rating, meaning that it really wouldn't be to the benefit of the forum community

Good luck.

crash 4th February 2006 04:01 AM

Good work Marcus, shows what a dud win and place SR's are and adds weight to what La mer is saying.

Qualifyers: 47406 Winners: 8482 Return: $40735

The above = A hiding and the poor house [tent].

DR RON 4th February 2006 08:47 PM

No problems Marcus, it was more out of curiosity than anything else.


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