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sportznovice 29th May 2006 08:07 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonymess
Just to clear that up - Im happy to price matches however I'm not comfortable telling people how they should gamble.

What I mean is that Ferrero at 1.28 and Hrbaty at 1.39 are seriously underpriced - even though I mark them as favourites. This leaves you with numerous options:

1) Wait until they get to a better price in the run and back them to win
2) Lay them at the current prices on offer and back them later in the run to cover your losses plus some (assuming their opponents do get close)
3) Back their opponents at the prices on offer and lay them back in the run if they happen get on top
4) Combinations on 2 or 3
5) Lay them at the 3-0 sets option and you win if their opponent takes at least a set

Does that make it a little clearer?


Not into tennis much Tonymess but am enjoying (and learning from) your thread. Thanks! :)

Tonymess 29th May 2006 08:49 PM

Well got the Ferrero deal correct - one set a piece and there was plenty of 2.14 available for the former winner - that being a lot juicier than the original odds on offer. Hope a few of you had a try.

Let's hope we can clean up with a few of the others as well - Vliegen and Tuksar not doing that well at present.

thefan 29th May 2006 09:12 PM

K. Pless 1
F. Volandri 4
market still open in sportsbet

Tonymess 30th May 2006 06:24 PM

Not off to a flying start with only 3 of the 5 "short ones" saluting and one of the two value ones winning.

Today I said I liked -

Chardy (1.68)
Verdasco (1.45)
Monfils (1.40)
Vicente (1.44)
Patience (1.99)
Mathieu (1.25)

I have added the price I rate them for your info.

Others who look value are:

Kindlmann (1.55)
Portas (2.14)

But I'm not that keen on risking serious money on them (for example Kindlmann has not won an ATP match this year).

Also will be taking on Hrbaty at the price on offer but as mentioned earlier I still rate him favourite.

thefan 30th May 2006 06:56 PM

im really bad at tipping so just back opposite wat i back

Baghdatis to win tonight

Tonymess 30th May 2006 10:39 PM

Early look at Wednesday.

Mirnyi over Massu - H2H 2-0 in the Beast from Belraus' favour and only on court for 1 hour and 43 mins compared to Massu's 4 hours and 25 mins. Nice price but not the sort of player you'd borrow money to bet on.

Henman over Tursunov - If this was R1 and Tursunov was looking at yet another loss on clay you'd be getting 1.50 or so Henman. Great value at the 1.70 or so on offer at the moment - watched them at the Aussie Open earlier this year and not a huge amount between them - Henman has made the Semis here before so he's my pick.

Sluiter over Lapentti - both struggling and Sluiter lucky with the retirement of Nieminen - Lapentti took 5 agonising sets to beat an out of touch Moodie. Price the Dutchman is nice.

Ferrero to drop at least a set to Kohlschriebber or the German at the price or an in-play betting go - similar to Round One where I think Ferrero is poor value but still rate him favourite.

Other matches I'm happy to let pass - Federer, Ancic, Davydenko, Grosjean, Nalbandian and Robredo all look winners but I have reasons to leave them.

Cheers

Tony

sparkus8 31st May 2006 04:08 PM

Tony I totally agree with you on Ferrero. After seeing a few of his Masters Series matches recently he is far from the player that won this tournament in 2003.

He still should get by Kohlschreiber, as like Ferrero he does not possess many weapons to hurt an opponent, but like Tony I can definitely see him struggling with this one.

If he progresses here I suggest that you oppose him in the next round against either Korolev or Gaudio as they both have the game to overpower him at the moment.

Anyways, my best bet for tonight is Berdych with the handicap over Volandri. The young Czech seems to be rounding into some of the form he showed last season and if he is anywhere near the top of his game he should easily take care of an out of sorts Volandri.

The pair met last week at the World Team Cup and Berdych disposed of him easily. I know that tournament is considered more of a warm up event than anything else, but from reports I have read Berdych was very impressive there and after seeing a few of Volandri's matches recently I am happy to take the Czech.

Berdych -5.5 games ($2) @ Bet365

Cheers,

Sparks

thefan 31st May 2006 06:43 PM

what alot of ppl missed out on was rd 1 matches when sportsbet market was still open for 1/2 hr after the math had already begun. 2 games were currently in play.

thefan 31st May 2006 07:00 PM

Well jinx of the tipster but my value bet of the day is..

Tim Henman v (Dmitry Tursunov - winner) @ $2.36

sparkus8 31st May 2006 07:55 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by thefan
what alot of ppl missed out on was rd 1 matches when sportsbet market was still open for 1/2 hr after the math had already begun. 2 games were currently in play.


I saw that they still had the Simon v Hernandez match open about 30-40 minutes into the match. Worked out quite well with Hernandez winning ;)


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