Yes it is still the smart bet. I have no problem with you backing the short odds runner if you have properly assessed the winning chances and have a minimum price you will accept. Blindly backing it no matter what the price is a sure way to lose money because you have already acknowledged (and seen) that "sure things" can be beaten. Lets say you assess the horse as a 70% chance (personally I doubt either horse yesterday was any more than 50% chance and Rubitano probably less than than) - then you should say the horse has 70% chance of winning so don't accept anything less than $1.70 (got to aim for at least 15-20% profit to allow for errors and price changes).

Lets say you don't put a minimum price and in a year you get 10 70% chances to bet on and your average price is $1.40 - In those same 10 races I bet on the 10% chances that are paying $21.00 (20:1). At the end of the year you have won seven times but I have only won once - I guess you are the more aggressive and therefore more successful punter? Problem is when you look at your account you have spent $1000 and only won $980 ($100 on each bet) - I have spent $1000 and won $2100.

Personally I think the key component of being successful in this game is INTELLIGENCE - agression usually clouds your judgement and leads to irrational bets instead of smart bets. Hey but that's just my opinion.

Testa
Commisserations on your day yesterday.I would just like to endorse the sentiments of be careful and encourage you to learn from your mistakes.There is a very old but valid saying in racing."Money lost,nothing lost. Confidence lost, everything lost." Of course this assumes that your methods are sound in the first place. In the spirit of this forum where we all should be trying to help each other learn. Can I say read between the lines of Be Carefuls post. The secret and in my opinion the only way to win is to assess each horses winning chance and express that chance as a price which you are prepared to accept. When you are able to do that the knowledge you already have about staking will put you on the winning path. Mechanical selecting systems are not worth a stamp.But some of the staking plans the system players come up with are very good. Forget the systems.

What a read! I hope you guys don't tread on each other's toes and misunderstand the sentiments shared.

I have to agree with Testarossa about aggression. In the end, no matter what you think through or do, and eventually how you decide (and bet or NOT bet), the final action is essentially emotionally driven. That is a fact. And if one sees the punting game as a sport then aggression is a good way to talk about the emotion you need to push through with your selection.

There have been many times I didn't have that in me to make it happen.

I was absolutely delighted seeing so many contributors AND doing a lot better than my picks this weekend.

Becareful ,

Totally have to agree about INTELLIGENCE being a key component in being a successful punter, but i believe INTELLIGENCE is only for the form side of things and AGGRESION is the betting side of things , just my opinion , and your rightly entitled to yours , i don't think anyone can be right or wrong , whatever works for you.

Legion ,

No need for commisserations , didn't actually back those two horses , actually haven't had a bet for 3 weeks , just having a break getting ready for the spring , thats why i haven't posted any of "testarossas sure things" lately , but thanks anyway.

This forum always has something worth reading. And many of the tips are worth following too. I've missed your Sure Things Testarossa. (I'm a fan of the Big O's last race lunges too.) The hex on forum posts is only apparent. If you look back some posters here do quite well but sure enough if you stick your neck out and say "This one for certain!" it will fail. Good on you for sticking your neck out anyway!

The variety of punting styles on this forum is a good thing. I get lots from it. I don't mind the current level of temper-tantrums and sh*t-bagging either. That's people for ya. Adds colour. Debate will always generate a bit of negativity but on this forum the positive contributions are the vast majority.

I often bet with an old friend. He's never read a form guide in his life. He follows rumours and tips and bets large sums entirely with his testicals. I'm betting $1-$10 with charts and maps and graphs and databases, the whole show. He's winning!

I hope you are all ahead.

Hermes