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I'd be interested in seeing at what odds you consider each horse is a lay.
Because on my understanding of racing and wagering, and how I make money, each of your lays has the chance of not being a lay, but a good bet. Eg you might want to lay one of your horses at $3.00, where it must win 33% of the time to break even, but that same horse might NOT be a lay but a good bet at $5.00 where it only has to win 20% of the time to break even. |
racing to win is a big lay for mine, i'd take $3.00 and under, very confident
i don't think it is a real miler - it only just got there in the doncaster with a feather weight and a dream run, and now is at WFA and 7 kgs more, facing some quality horses and should not be odds on. All the other horses have done well over the mile. o'shea couldn't split him and primus and hes a big risk cateclipse i'd probably lay at $3.50 and under, didn't beat much last start, raced 4 times at the distance for no wins, and 6 times at the distance for 1 win, meets my pick the rising safwa who looks promising. |
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