Dittman made a comeback and did nothing, Beadman made a comeback and was given his old job back - speaks volumes.

How can one be taking unders with a 33% POT at TAB prices, there is also an 8% place POT with all horses under $7.00.

crash, you are spot on that good horses make a jockey look better than they are, and I do agree that giving the mounts to other jockeys would transform them into leading jockeys, no argument there.

But Darren has something a little different. He has a gut instinct on mounts which Hawkes noticed a long time ago. He has something which cannot be quantified and I've only ever seen it in one other jockey - R J Skelton.

Paul Harvey does not have it, he has something else ;)

gawd, more worms, you couldn't go broke go4it as like I said just a bit of fun, so not exactly $1000 UNITS, chances are that it breaks even or thereabouts depending entirely on how the better priced winners fall, but again a bit of fun.
I do some serious punting, and also some system based fun ideas and I THINK MOST PEOPLE DO.

Well like I said Party, I was only playing Devils Advocate. No more than that.

As for Chrome's figures, well they are just that. They prove nothing that he says they prove because no average price was given for his rides [SP favorite or not].
Beadmans SP favorite rides for the past 12mths. would be a lot lower than average SP prices for all favorites because his mounts are pounded on the tote and so are Hawke runners. Doubly so If Beadman is on one.

I'd like to see anyone name all Beadman's starts over the next 12 months that start SP favorite. Some sure but certainly not most. It would come down to guessing.

It's one thing to trot out past [incomplete for what they claim to back up]
figures and say they back up future profit of some idea as Chrome regularly does, it's completely another to know what they will be in advance. Nobody can accurately back any Jockies future SP favorite rides.

Anyhow Party, it will be interesting to see if this one goes peer shape [as these things often do here] :-)

yes well beadman/hawkes & a couple other combinations have got a good thing going in what used to be a competative racing scene in sydney (seems like an eternity ago), so whilst the lad has a mountain of talent i believe its more a case of "who you know" rather than "what you know"

be interesting to see how he would match up these days somewhere like honkers, or even melbourne for that matter. but still whatever turns a quid has got to be a good thing :)

Beadman for Sept.

2/9 Rosehill
9 rides
R1: w$1.45w F [Hawks].
R8: Mustard $12w

12/9 WF
6 rides
R3 w$2.70F [H]

13/9 Canterbury
4 rides [all Hawkes]
r4 w$2.60F [H]

16/9
8 rides
All lost

23/9
7 rides
All lost

26/9
6 rides [all Hawkes]
r1 w$1.75 F
r4 w$2 F
r5 w$1.80 F
r6 w$2 F
r7 w$3 F

27/9
4 rides [all Hawkes]
All Lost



Total rides: 44
Total wins: 9
Total win price: $29.30
Average win price just under $3.25 with the inclusion of a $12 winner. Take that away and he averages $2.16 a win from 8 wins.

Obviously Beadmans win price average is generally well below average fav. win price.
Anyone backing Beadman last month would have been totally reliant on last Sat. longshot to [just] make a profit. He had 6 losing rides, that have to be considered so a profit would have [just] been made at level stakes for the month. Whew !!

Crash, do I take that you are not fan of Beadman??? just kidding,

crash in your haste to disagree with me, I think you missed the point.

I agree that most of Beadman's mounts are unders - no argument there.

But not all of them are unders, his mounts over distances of 2200m plus return a very healthy POT and strike rate - because jockey instinct, rating and positioning a horse are most important over distance.

The figures prove that he wins more than the odds available over distance, therefore his mounts over distance are not unders.

This was considering all mounts either first or second favourite only.

I didn't even hone it down to his pet tracks which boost the strike rate enormously.

Crash, I'll post Beadman's Best in another thread for the coming 12 months, but I still think you just come back with "that proves nothing" as is always the case.

Fair enough Chrome I misinterpreted your figures but it would have been handy if you clarified them when presenting them rather than in a latter post.

Distance events have a higher average fav. price than sprints, so naturally Beadmans figure's [and everyone else's] get dragged up a notch or two. That's hardly ground breaking news.

No. I don't automatically claim stats prove nothing, but when there used on a fairly long bow as they often are here, yes I do claim that they prove nothing about the future.
Looking back over 12 mths. is the past by the way Chrome, not the future and it's the future were discussing here, not the past I'm disputing.

Party,
No, I think Beadman is a great rider [among quite a few others] but he slaughters his share of rides too. I just think he gets more accolades than he deserves considering he's sitting on the short priced fav. a lot of the time and as last months figure show, he has no trouble riding a card without a win.
Even 2 meetings in a row without a win. He's no champion jockey [any more] that's for sure.

If he is so good, let him get down here to Melb. and mix it with the big boys.

As for your swipe at Dittman Chrome. let's put that little bit of ignorance to bed :-))

MICK DITTMAN
- winner of more than 1,700 races
- winner of 88 Group 1 races
- winner of Melbourne Cup
- winner of 3 Golden Slippers
- winner of 2 Cox Plates
- winner of Caulfield Cup
- winner of 3 Sydney Jockey Premierships
- winner 5 Brisbane Jockey Premierships

Some of the horses Dittman rode:

- Full on
- Aces
- Bounding Away
- Bint Marscay
- Strawberry Road
- Red Anchor
- Gurner's Lane
- Sydeston

This info might help your system Party !

1/8/02 to 27/9/06
Odds Range Stats:S.....W....W%

Odds on-Evens..197...118...59.9
1.1 - 2.5.......686....236...34.4
2.6 - 5.0......1035...234...22.6
5.1 - 8.0.......633...81.....12.8
8.1 - 16.0.....518...39......7.5
16.0+ ..........219....7......3.2

Total..........3288...715....21.7 [27w from last 100 rides]

Distance Range Stats
<=1000.............161....34....21.1
1001m-1300m...1400...311...22.2
1301m-1500m.....670...141...21.0
1501m-2000m.....872...192...22.0
2001m-2400m.....154....30....24
2401m+...............31.....7....22.6

Total...............3288...715....21.7

I won't print out all the stats, but the best bet for Beadman seems to be:

1. 2yr to 4yr old horse [23% w]
2. 1001m-1300m or 2001m to 2400m [as Chrome said, you might make a profit sticking to this distance, but a long time between bets].
3. Exactly 14d since last start [24.6% w]
4. Barrier 1 to 6 [23.4% w]
5. Weight 52 to 53kg [37.5% w] or 57-58kg [24.5% w]
6. Trained by Hawkes:-)

comparing Dittman and Beadman is a no contest.

Mick proved to be a champion hoop in 3 states,and his ability to position his mount in the run and his strength in a close finish were phenomenal.

Darren is reluctant to venture out of Sydney.

Don't get me wrong,I think he is a very good rider,but I wonder where he be if his association with the Hawkes camp was severed?

It was only a few years ago that the dodgy bros.(jim & larry)were riding high for top stables.Where are they now?

CP,

Beadman admitted to jockey "error"on that ride mentioned,and he didn't sit 5 wide.If that is your criterion for jockey error have another think.

Hawkes was so filthy on that ride he wouldn't even talk to him after the race.