OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

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OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)

- Horse Racing (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=5)

- - Trifectas (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=14957)

Punter4211

12th November 2006 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

I plan on running this side by side with the formula i use, i am very happy with the results i get.

Hi,
Would you believe I've had so many things on, I havent had a chance to look at them as yet.. But I will do it during the week.

It's a shame there are only two days in a weekend.

Regards
Ozpunter

Punter4211

20th November 2006 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ubetido

Hi the formula is as follows:

X[(XY-1)(Z+1)
X+1

3[(3*4)-1(9+1)]
3+1

3*11*10
4

So to your dividends
2.5 2.7 12 expected dividend $53

Cheers

Hi ubetido,
Thanks for contributing to my request, but unfortunately I couldn't fathom your formula. When I did it on a spread sheet as I interpreted it I got an answer vastly different to the example you've given. Perhaps, if you have time you could walk me through it... The test dividends are A=2.5, B=2.7 & C=12 (dollars of course)

Thanks
Oz Punter

Punter4211

20th November 2006 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

The formula Ubetido put in is correct i have used it before works a treat, divis or normaly higher than the rated prices i will give an exaample from a race today.

The Oaks

Win div of the first 3 places from Unitab

1st $2.50 =a
2nd $2.70 =b
3rd $11.60 =c

take 1 from each price
1.5
1.7
10.6

(1.5x((1.5x1.7)-1)xC)/a)

Payout is $10.79

Trifecta payed $34.10

Hi Shaun,
Thanks for contributing to my request for a trifecta formula. Your explanation seems to be fairly easy to follow but I still couldn't get your $10.79 example result when I tried the formula out. Perhaps if you have time you could walk me through an example.

Kind Regards
OzPunter

Punter4211

20th November 2006 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfc

This is the correct solution:

A: 2.5
B: 2.7
C: 12
D: =0.8/(E1*F1*G1/(1-E1)/(1-E1-F1)) expected Div
E: =0.84/A1
F: =0.84/B1
G: =0.84/C1

It matches Brave Chief's formula (oft-repeated according to the search function).

It assumes unbiased distributions, Win returns of 84% and Trifecta returns of 80%.

Hi JFC,
Thanks for contributing to my request for a solution to the Trifecta problem, unfortunately I could not get a sensible result with the example given. Perhaps if you have time you could walk me through the formula to see how you came up with the result.

Thanks
OzPunter

ubetido

20th November 2006 07:55 PM

Hi Oz Punter

On your spreadsheet in cell A2 type in the following:

=B2*(B2*C2-1)*(D2+1)/(B2+1)

If you type 5 in cell B2 and C2 and D2 it should give you 120

Cheers
ubetido

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