[QUOTE=Mark]
Crash
I can understand your disappointment as BF has not grown in the last 3 years, IMO. I think the BF pools have stagnated, and will not increase any further until BF is able to advertise nationally and some of the bad press has been rectified.

QUOTE]

Thanks for the insight Mark. Like I said though, it's early days and I was expressing 'initial' thoughts from [naturally] a shallow experience of BF so far. I'm still are a long way yet from seeing into the depths of possibility that are, as you point out, there to be exploited within BF.

Mmm yes I skimmed over that bit on first reading. That is a silly mistake.

I wouldn't want any contributors to be scarred off though. Please share the resources you find. I for one am here for the diversity of views.

$18 about Sky Biscuit on BF. $5.50 on Unitab, bit better elsewhere. Crazy stuff!!!

The opportunites are certainly there.

Hi Mark,

I did some extensive research regarding prices versus winners.
This research was only on favourites.
My conclusion is based on value and not number of winners.
Let me explain entirely why I hold this point of view.

I did an exercise in the thousands of manually comparing the movements of TAB IAS and Betfair on favourites. I also tried two approaches in real time over a thousand bets (at the start of this thread).
What got me started was the Betfair Advantage Tool, and realising that the price comparison was to a degree flawed, I wanted to compare the best and worst prices and the actual fluctuations rather than just the final price available on Betfair.

As this data is not available in Betfair's historical data, I had to do it all manually (ugh).

But I did only record various prices, not every price (that would be near impossible).

I recorded favourites or joint favourites on IAS.

Backing every one on IAS at opening quote returned only -1.43% POT.
That surprised me greatly.

Backing every one at final tote price returned 0.87% POT.
That astounded me.

It would seem that IAS are a better judge than tote punters - I had held this belief for many years anyway.

Now what about Betfair?

Well the final available price meant nothing in the scheme of things - even though it showed a profit, so I set about throwing (small) real money at various percentages over and under the IAS opening price to back and lay.

Surely if you got 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% better than IAS - you'd kill them!
Surely if you layed in the same increments shorter than IAS - you'd brain them as well.

Here's what happened....

I lost $1300 - but it was well worth it for the learning experience.

This happened because over time a pattern emerged, when my "overlays" were matched I made a huge loss, and when my lay bets were matched I also made a huge loss.

The pattern was clear enough to me, that although weight of money didn't necessarily indicate a winner for this particular race, as a long term proposition as far as value or profit goes, it certainly was a very strong indicator.

Note these bets were left floating in the market for at least 30 minutes.

Determined to make a bit of cash to pay for my expensive exercise, I decided to fly with taking advantage of this knowledge.

So I reversed my situation and put my a lay and back bet into the market at a few cents over and a few cents under the IAS price. This was more of a "watching" alert as I was trading on almost every horse race in Australia at that point.

When the lay price was matched, if the horse kept firming to a pattern I backed the horse for a greater amount, because it was firming. What I was doing was getting one of the best prices available at the time on firmers.

When the back price was matched, if it kept drifting I would lay it for a greater amount.

I didn't do anything silly like lay it at huge prices over, just close to the set price.

I made $3,450.52 clear profit.

I may have made a boo boo somewhere, I may have encountered luck or been unlucky, but after recording a thousand races manually and watching the movements and seeing the impact on profit/loss, I am convinced that my hypothesis is true.

Now it certainly may be well off the mark as far as others in the market go, but it's certainly true with favourites. The movement that is, not the actual price.

As further confirmation, I did another independant test in real time as outlined in Post #1 in this thread which further reinforces my findings.

I have also done the same test on U.K. races using the openers of 5 fixed priced U.K. bookies.

Exactly the same pattern emerged.

I don't necessarily endorse everything he says, and I have actually looked at these minute traders who snip a few cents here and there - it's not for me at all. Although you can stop/loss your position, you can quite easily be left with your tail in the wind. One bad decision will wipe out all profit for the day.
That's just my take on it.
I would rather approach it in another similar manner.

Having said that I really liked a lot of his rules and suggestions, not necessarily his maths.

Actually, last Saturday was a very good demonstration.

Most of the favourites that eased on Betfair lost, most that firmed won.
I know because I was laying favourites all day.
I now use the BetAngel market graph (free version) and make decisions from there.

Chrome, do I understand you correctly? I'll try some examples of what I think you're doing.

(a)You back say $20 @ 3.0, if it drifts to 4.0 you lay $25. or
(b)You lay $20 @ 3.0, if it firms to 2.5 you back it for $30.

The odds and amounts are fictitious, but have I got the general idea correct?
(a) Is more likely to lose because of the drift, and (b) is more likely to win because it has firmed.
So in effect you've laid (a) for $5 @ 7.00. And you've backed (b) for $10 @ 1.50.

ps It's late so I may be confused.
Look forward to your reply.

Not exactly, basically I cancel (effectively) the unwanted bet/lay. This unwanted or "flag" bet is merely a $6.00 alert bet to give me a reminder heads up, it isn't to try and even up or take advantage of using that initial bet.

For example
(a)You back say $6 @ 3.0, if it drifts to 4.0 you lay $60. or
(b)You lay $6 @ 3.0, if it firms to 2.5 you back it for $60 is more like the ratios involved.

(a) Is more likely to lose because of the drift, and (b) is more likely to win because it has firmed.

Yes that's the premise.
I realise what you're getting at, that I'm actually betting against myself and reducing my own odds to a severe degree, however, using much better ratios of investment this is reduced.
Also on another issue, it is quite often that I go to lay a horse at say evens and it's already at $1.80, so in that case it becomes a bet straight away with no "flag" bet.

It's not perfect, but it's certainly a very good indicator to start with.

Ok, I'm with you now.

At what point in the drift/firm do you place the "real"bet. Do you have a set % move or price in mind to start with?
And is this how you made the 3 gorilla's?

Mark,

I'm a trader, but I'm not a trader - if you follow.

Betfair is essentially a "trading" platform these days with manual and betting bots trading tiny fluctuations in the market. That approach is not my cup of tea.

Within this barrage of money either way, people have lost sight of the "true" odds of a horse, whatever it might be. The true odds do not matter to the trader, but to me there is vast opportunity to profit.

These bots etc bring some prices to an unrealistic level and then the punters cause a marked fluctuation in or out.

I'm more a bookie trader, but identifying opportunites which are market driven at the same time.
Essentially I am still very much in newbie mode, but gaining information and experience all the time.

I have no set trader alert other than the matched initial bet makes me look at the chart of money or prices.
I do have a certain limit on lays though, a fluctuation out to $4.00 is my limit of exposure, anything more is too much risk for me, although I'm probably costing myself profit in the longrun.

The three gorilla's I made from following that procedure, I didn't follow it on Saturday and copped a hiding.

On post mortem, all the favourites (or most of them that won) should have been back bets and I should only have layed the drifters to $4.00.

It's all information to work with in the future and I'm still way ahead for the year.

There are prices being offered on a regular basis on Betfair that regular traders just couldn't make a longterm profit unless they are trading the fluctuations.