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-   -   Maria's Selection Method (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=15520)

Chrome Prince 2nd March 2007 04:12 PM

crash,

i realise what you are getting at, and you're probably right, but someone prepared to lay an odds on horse at $3.00 is not smart when it goes on every single day in most races.
Of course there will be those that are layed, for one reason or another at higher prices, but not as an overall scenario, those layers have to be losing a lot of money and it bars anyone else out of the lay market if they want to make a profit.
I have a feeling rather than "not smart", the markets are miniscule by comparison and punters are "chasing" to get matched at their own expense, which is the number one golden rule of what not to do.

That's why I switched my method in Australia.

crash 2nd March 2007 04:29 PM

Considering Betfair is still new here and with new punters joining every day, it will take a while for things to settle down. I doubt Poms being smarter [they wish] than Ozzie's has anything to do with it. They are just more familiar with Betfair and Laying, that's all.

They can't play cricket [they have been at it longer than we have] and are equally hopeless at most other international sports. I doubt they are especially good at punting either!

Chrome Prince 2nd March 2007 05:27 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
Considering Betfair is still new here and with new punters joining every day, it will take a while for things to settle down. They are just more familiar with Betfair and Laying, that's all.


Yes, that seems to be also part of it.

My pricing method breaks even at level stakes.

Here's some examples today:

Canterbury R5 Subtle Glance
I priced this horse at $2.60.
I backed it at $2.84 and won

Canterbury R6 Slow Waltz
I priced this horse at $2.10
I layed it at $1.94 and won

Sandown R4 Illustration
I priced this horse at Even money
I layed it at $1.80 and won

Canterbury R7 Quizzical Lady
I priced this horse at $2.50
I backed it at $2.80 and won

These sorts of over and under percentages just aren't available in the bigger markets.
Someone's going broke.

odericko 2nd March 2007 06:36 PM

maybe early days yet michael but i think were onto a good loser here...another outstanding day

michaelg 2nd March 2007 07:43 PM

I haven't looked too closely at it today because I don't have too much confidence in the neurals. Even the TA category can sometimes seem skewered. A top trainer can have a horse running at a certain track and because he never had a horse previously there the neurals can give him minimum points. I think the strike rate as Maria takes into account, would be more of an indicator.

Racer 3rd March 2007 09:26 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
I doubt Poms being smarter

That's probably a fair statement Crash, assuming your survey only included the **** boxers, LOL ! LOL !

Kind Regards.


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