Hi Oz ,,not completely off the wall ...you'd have to know the trainers facilities though,,most still work in the rain and alot have all weather training tracks..but i like your thinking..

in regards Mentality and Sparky i think you're being to hard on yourself ,,,Mentality was always going to backed late,, smart punters would have been hoping the Media tip Murty would be short enough to give them better odds...I wasnt there but heard Mentality looked impressive in the yard.. Sparky the same ,,apparently he looked better than he ever has and there was good money (some of it mine) around for the unreliable Written Tycoon..

Very true, I'd prefer to stay in my stall but the trainer may not give me that option so there might not necessarily be a lack of exercise.

Three faves won the nine races at Randwick on Saturday, maybe they were not affected by the bad weather? Still, it's food for thought.

Maverick 1993 says both horses looked good in the yard - if this was responsible for the plunge or part of it, then how could anyone possibly factor this into their earlier calculations? I too get the impression that you might just be a little too hard on yourself. Your other selections did very well.

If Mark Read, etc, had soft opening prices on the two horses it would then seem they also did not rate them too highly.

I take your point Mark, Maybe I'm just parinoid because it was a bad day for me.. But the ones I rated as best didn't include Mentality and Spark of life... Other punters knew these were "on" ad I'm trying to figure out why..

Price Arthur was one of my best so I'm disaponted also even though I rated Spirit of Tara on top.. I thought Beadman would lift him..

I can't accept the notion the Daren is currupt, but I just don't think his rides have been as good as the they promise to be since he became No 1 rider for the J Hawkes stable... I don't think there's anything underhand at foot, but perhaps the material is just not up to the task... Darrens locked in in some way so he has to ride what he's told to. I see a "cover" tactic in some races where Rod Quinn gets the second stable choice, in case the boss fails to get to the line.

Let's not dawdle on corruption and allegations, there's something else, I don't know what it is but I'm going to find it... Others knew about Mentality and Spark of life so why didn't I???

Think about it, there has to be something another clue...

Regards
OzPunter

g'day oz,

mate, i love discussing ratings & analysis methods so if you wanna drop an email to bravechief06 at y a h o o . com so we can communicate by email, feel free.

you're asking good questions. there are 2 things i think a rating method needs, you have to "project" a horses rating forward & say "i think this horse is an xx rating horse" (at sometime in the future).

but you also need to judge when a horse is suited. when a horse is suited, it gets a bonus, naturally. this may involve some profiling. a certain distance, track, pace or stage of campaign ?? & be prepared to back your judgements.

perhaps Sparky goes well first up, likes the track, trialled well etc. at first glance he certainly has an early pace adv over Written Tyccon & Media over 1000m, this could potentially equate to a "suited bonus".

as for Mentatlity, in his last 2 starts he was trading blows with Desert War & Eremein at WFA, higher rating form than Muta?? 4th up over the mile, raced over a mile last start, G1 winner over a mile as a 2yo. Muta was stepping up from the sprints, never raced over mile before. Do you think Mentality was more seasoned than Muta for this race? Looks suited, worth a bonus?

Now we're cookin, brave chief...

I'll be in touch, you're obviously on the ball.

Regards
OzPunter

G'day OzPunter,

You were wondering how did everyone else seem to know that Mentality and Spark of Life were going to win, and as such "were backing these two furiously." I think there's a simple answer. Most punters aren't regular punters or do it for a living and just bet occassionally for the excitement of it all. They don't really have a good understanding of what to look for to find a winner. And so, when it comes time to make their selections, they buy racing newspapers, believing them to be bibles and base their bets on the feature articles and the papers' opinions on who are the top-rated runners. I hate it when one of my selections gets a mention from the media, because it's a certainty that it will be pounced upon by the average Joe punter, and the price I get won't be as good as it would've been otherwise. I notice in the Sportsman, that both Mentality and Spark of Life were spouted as the top-rated runners in their races, though interestingly, they were the only Sportsman top-rated runners to win out of the 9 races at Randwick. Also in the Sportsman was an article about Mutawaajid, that has it's jockey, Hugh Bowman, heaping praise upon Mentality. And there's a mention that Spark of Life came 2nd in last year's Challenge Stakes to Snitzel. I think it's these kinds of things that catch average Joe punters' eyes, and help them determine their selections.

So, when you ask how did everyone else know to bet on Mentality and Spark of Life? My answer is because the media told them too.

I concur S&S ;)

I knew from the moment I saw the odds that Mentality was overs and Mutawajid unders. Mentality has been consistantly putting in good solid runs against top class opposion and while it is true that Mutawajid looked impressive beating Gold Edition, I always thought the form from that race was dodgy due to the muddling pace - sprint home nature of it. Judging by the stampede to get on Mentality, I obviously wasn't the only one thinking this way.