If Seamer can't get belspirt home and win
last week , do you think by putting Oliver
on board will make any differences? dont get
me wrong Oliver is a champion jockey so is
Seamer too. owner and trainer don't realise
a better horse will win on the day regardless
of if a horse is a champion , look at Sunline
she got beaten a few times by a better horse
on the day eg. Fairway. And Spinning hill is
no doubt a champion horse when you look at
the past performance in the past.
cheers!by the way 2 tips for tomorrow "feed
the meter" and "clangaclang"

Fairway....mmmm now there's a horse who couldn't run the 2000m of the Rosehill Guineas, unplaced as a short priced favourite so obviously no chance in the Derby. Anyone remember the result? He was around 14/1, juicy.

Undecided at the present whether Bel Esprit will get the 1400 metres. The colt will definitely need to settle. There is also usually a big difference between the tempo of 1200 metres and 1400 metres races.

Replacing Seamer is ridiculous - he is one of the best jockeys around. It's so typical of racing people talking through their pockets. If the horse doesn't win find anyone or anything to blame - the jockey or whatever.

If Seamer went too early and so cost Bel Esprit the race last week, and that is debateable, there's no guarantee anyway that Oliver will ride the perfect race on Sunday.

It's a pity, but there's not much loyalty left these days when it comes to many relationships between jockeys, trainers and owners.

I guess what goes around comes around.

[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2002-09-19 11:05 ]

Neil's right about the knee jerk reaction to dump Seamer.

Oliver is a champion jockey but he is also notorious for making the wrong choice when it comes to deciding on his mounts. It wasn't that long ago when it was often a safer option to back the horse Oliver didn't choose, his judgement was that bad.

In this race, he would have had the choice of Chong Tong(Flemington Straight specialist), Bush Padre(up in class, down in weight and in top form), the two runners he rode at their last start and Bel Esprit.

Oliver's skill in selecting mounts in the past has been nowhere near as good as his skill in riding them. It'll be interesting to see if he's improved.

I believe Oliver gets involved with the big decisions about choices of mounts. His manager, who gets Oliver his rides, has joined the Sport 927 tipping panel. I'd hardly be jumping on his tips.

PS - Seems to be another case of a clear conflict of interest. What Oliver rides does he tip or give the "slows" to?

Then again, if Ian Colllins can manage a stadium, be privy to contracts clubs have with the stadium including Carlton, run for President of Carlton Football Club and negotiate with himself as both Stadium manager and Carlton president (Carlton want to play less games at the Stadium due to high costs involved) anything is possible.

[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2002-09-19 11:53 ]

Mark,
Fairway had won the Champion Stakes over 2000m 6 months before failing in the Guineas so I don't think many people put his Guineas failure down to " couldn't get the trip ". If memory serves me the track was cutting up a bit and he was taken on in front.
Got his own way on a dynamite leaders track at Randwick in the AJC Derby and won the 2000m Turnbull as a 4YO.
Bel Esprit is an out and out sprinter in my view. The Show Day Cup winners that were 3YO's all went on to prove themselves over a bit more ground. If you don't think BE will get a good mile don't back him on Sunday.
Caulfield was a swoopers track last time around too so that plays against him a bit.

Nobody can be 100% sure until after the race. I wouldn't be surprised to see him race back & be one of the swoopers, or be 6 in front & give them no chance.
I just like to see favourites get beat, & the shorter the better.

BE may well turn out to be your pin-up horse Mark. I can't believe all the hype about a horse that has won one Group One ( fell in ) and has been beaten in the other two he's contested.

When I mentioned the jockey switch, I was in no way having a go at Seamer or even being enthusiastic about Oliver. I was merely pointing out that the mere engagement of Oliver will trim the odds half to one full point. Which will make Bel Esprit even worse value.

I am not saying that Bel Esprit isn't any chance - but whether the horse wins or not, such a distance query is not value at anything under 3/1.

My personal opinion is that the distance is beyond a win for Bel Esprit, but I have been wrong before. Look at my bet against Northerly!

However, what I am not wrong about is the value angle.
Northerly was not value first up at even money and Bel Esprit is not value at under 3/1 win, lose or draw; especially when you consider the records of the opposition who are proven at the distance and beyond.

Just my opinion.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-19 15:30 ]

i think Bel espirit will run a great race...and prove the people who doubt he will run out the distance....like equine invester was saying this is a quality field and the odds maybe a little skinny but if the general public believe he cant run out the distance i wouldnt mind snapping up some juicy odds....if Bel espirit isnt first pass the post watch for desert eagle to be running on! I look forward to the result!