Hi Privateer

A couple more questions if you don’t mind?

1. Should I be grouping all races together? By this I mean should I be looking at 3 yo races separate to races for all ages. My thinking here is that because 3 yo have had fewer races there win/place % is normally higher.

2. Should I be looking at race distances separately? From having looked at the days from the previous start I know horses with a break of 21 days or more win/place in races up to 1400m a greater amount than in races over 1400m

Also a neighbour of mine who likes to have a bet gave me a book to read, which had a lot of different selection and staking methods in it. This book was printed about 1951/1952 as it had the race results in it. (My neighbour is about 80 yrs young) Most of the selection methods in this book dealt with using the top 3 picks in the papers. What you have to do is get each persons selection for the race and award 3 points for the 1st pick, 2 points for the 2nd pick and 1 point for the 3rd pick. So what I have started to do is note down each selectors picks for Bris. Syd and Melb from the Sportsman and Courier Mail and see how accurate they are and if I can use them in my selection method. They say that the tipsters aren’t that good, but I have never paid their selections too much notice, so I thought I should keep an open might about it and see how they go.

I hope that you can answer my questions, if that’s possible, as I do understand you don’t want to be giving away information as to how you do your selection method. What I am hoping, is that you can help me with how I should be looking at stats. Like should I be putting races into different groups and look at each group separately or have I got it all wrong and need to totally rethink it.


Thanks

Wise One

I think what you will find is that the average tipsters SR for their top 3 is 46%
But they all have great days & not so great days.

I feel 46%+ is very good .
I have found in the past its better to work with 5-6 tipsters rather than 10 or more for whatever reason.
One tends to hit the better prices this way.
As with 10 & more tends to hit a lot of the shorter prices.

I would suggest breaking the 8 race venue into 2 halves .
4 & 4.

Try & strike a winner within those first 4 then stop.
Now do the same with the final 4 races.

Staking plan 2 2 3 4 = 11 until a winner ,dont go any further start again .
Or 3 3 3 3 = 12 level stakes.


For 2 horses a race bet 3 + 2 = 5
This is equal to 60% + 40% this works well on the right selections especially if there is a juicy price with a short priced commodity.
It gives a punter a lot more confidence in his betting if the prices look right.

Place the $2 on the longer price of the 2 horses or visa vera for value hunting & $3 on the other.
e.g. if the 2.50 shot looks like he is drifting in the market & has a chance of losing & one of your other chances is paying $14 , one would feel more confident having a crack at the $14 shot knowing one is covered with short priced Fav.
If the $2.50 wins x 2 ret $5
If the $14.00 wins x 3 ret $42

I feel you will be a lot more successful if you can break it down like this stopping at the first winner in 4, long term.

Do the same for the other venues.

Cheers.

Hello Wise One

Well, there you are then!! Baggie has sorted out your tipster question!


Briefly...my advice is to totally forget racing "tipsters". Generally speaking, they all tip favourites and are in competition amongst themselves. Take Bart Sinclair in Brisbane. His 3 "best bets" are mostly the 3 shortest priced faves on the program! How hard is that?

Try this, use any paper and follow the tipsters for 1 month. At the same time YOU select your tips as well. Total them up at the end of the month and I'll bet you are not last! They do not have any more of an idea than the average punter, if they did, they wouldn''t be giving away their tips free in a newspaper!

1. Grouping races. No, don't separate the races to apply different stats to them. Maybe use the prizemoney assessor to work out which races you bet on? (I probably average 6 bets per weekend across 4 states.) Don't search for races to bet on, let the races show you which are good betting options.

2. The answer to that is that there are more shortcourse races than anything else! Don't separate distances either. Your stats must apply right across the board. (As a matter of interest, check horses running again in exactly 7 days and see if you can find a pattern there with formlines - there is one!)

Be disciplined, believe in yourself and your information, do your homework, don't lose faith and support yourself with a simple staking plan.

Cheers

Privateer

Once again thanks for you advice privateer. You have save me from wasting a lot of time looking if the wrong direction with the newspaper selections,as I was about to start going back through piles of The Courier Mail and Sportsman getting all the info together

Also thanks for you words of support and encouragement

Wise one

I think that the best tipster and the best rating service is the betting market.

Look through every days results (the tassie tote is very convenient for this as the closing market is on the same page as the results) and you will find that winner comes from the first four horses in the market very frequently.

I,m sure Wesmip and friends can supply the exact percentage.From memory I think around 80% of the time.

The trick is to work out a successful betting strategy based around this knowledge.

Rating double digit winners is wishful thinking (and we all try to pull it off) Tipsters will throw in a roughie every now and then in the hope of grabbing a few brownie points.But lets face it,when tipping three horses in one race any punter can throw in the odd longshot.

For example.Look at Peter Graham's mounts at the country meetings.Eliminate the short priced horses that he has booked,,,simply tip his longshots.From time to time he will pop up on a 8/1+ pop.Or more frequently a placed horse paying better than 5/1.

The market will prevail.

Hero
 

To the anonymous hero who has sent me several immature emails regarding my punting suggestions......

I sincerely hope that you have an all up bet and in the last leg (your previous 5 have all won), your 50/1 selection gets nutted right on the line after sitting 6 wide for the entire race, the jockey loses an iron, the saddle slips and your horse cops a huge check from the eventual winner (your "gut feeling" selection) 100 metres out. Your guy protests, the bookies lay yours as long odds on to win the objection, but it gets dismissed!!

Happy punting fool!

Onya Privateer, love it!! Just goes to show that intellect is not required to turn on a computer.

Privateer

the "hero", is no hero,

If they disagree with your punting suggestions, why don't they put it here in the forum, so it can be discussed by anyone and everyone.

May be the hero is a chicken?

Wise one

[Quote)
For example.Look at Peter Graham's mounts at the country meetings.Eliminate the short priced horses that he has booked,,,simply tip his longshots.From time to time he will pop up on a 8/1+ pop.Or more frequently a placed horse paying better than 5/1.


Lolol quoting my own quotes,must be close to masturbation.

Seriously though,this whiz kid of a jockey at Cessnock yesterday rode.

Race4 #4 Fine Dane $8.80 $3.10 for a win

Race7 #8 Hit Play $13.90 $2.80 for a third place

Race9 #7 Level Three $17.30 $5.20 for a third place.

Horses grow an extra leg for Peter Graham,He does this kind of thing often.

Prices are Tassie tote.

Anyone not using the Tassie tote as part of their raceday strategy would do well to have a look.Click on a horse on the betting market window and up comes an interactive form guide,which includes excellent ratings and plenty of useful options,,all free......

Wise One......any luck working something out? If so, how has it gone?