Thanks Dale. Good point re the number of starters, I've found that the results on the lower class tracks are good in terms of strike rate but the returns aren't enough to make it fly at the moment and mostly in small fields.


Good luck with your own system.

Dale - I meant to ask, what IS your strike rate for top rated and your top 4? I need to check latest data for my own ratings but my top rated doesn't deliver as much as I would have liked either...

Hey Sparky sorry about the delay.

Ill have the answer for you in a few days,so far ive just been collecting results,dividends etc and havent got to that,ive got enough data for it to mean something now so ill start on it.

Off hand the top rater is hovering around the 20% mark,the top 3 around the 50% mark and the top 4 nudging 60%.

Cheers.

Dale - be interesting to see what the actual strike rates are, fyi my latest are as follows so maybe not too dissimilar to yours?

17%	14%	21%	12%
1	2	3	4

I'm running the same ratings formulas with some minor tweaks for low class races and the results for top rated are much better but overall returns (backing all 4) not so good even though the strike rate is better at 75%. Sample size (50 races) means this needs longer to settle down.

37.7%	5.7%	11.3%	20.8%
1	2	3	4

Bhagwan. Thanks again for your suggestions in your recent post. I reran the numbers based on your suggestions and sadly the POT reduced a little but I didn't manage to utilise the $4 second fave cut-off as you suggested (too hard for my poor excel skills) so maybe that explains it.

I did, however, run the numbers based on limiting bets to only backing all four when combined odds for top 4 rated were better than my current strike rate (64%) - the POT rose to 43% for 100 races. This seems to "prove" the theory I was keen to test in my initial post ie: the concept of value may apply to combined odds just as much as to individual odds but I still struggle with this a bit and suspect I may just have a lucky sample!

Anyway, v.grateful for your thoughts on this - will keep plugging away and see how it goes.

Cheers

Thanks for sharing your observations.

I was reading some where that was one way of doing iy .
That is Betting all the selections Dutch betting or level stakes when the total available percentage is greater than our own because long term one should get in front.

The only thing that upsets the apple cart is when there are heaps of short payers comming in & that is why where the $4.00 2nd Fav rule , tries to address that issiue.

When ever one sees a $3.90 & less 2nd fav.
the race stats show that it will be won by one of the 2 Favs approx 45% of the time & thats not what one wishes for doing 4 horses.

Now that we are into a new season one will see a lot of this .
So my surgestion is save your gun powder for when the conditions are in your favour , rightly or wrongly.

Cheers.

Sparky

I think those figures of yours will settle down with more races,i mean that the top rater should start winning more than the 2nd,the 2nd more than the 3rd and so on.

If i was you i'd hold back on the tweaking untill you have a few hundred races,the changes you make will be more accurate that way.


I still havent finished the claculations for my top 4 but i do have some figures for my top rater

321 races(any race anywhere,hurdles Darwin you name it)
69 wins = 20.23%
returning $311.90 uni tab

There are some days i havent got to yet that i know will lift the return dramticly and i think eventualy the strike rate will end up around the 22% mark.

As i said earlier ignoring races with small fields lifts the results into good profit,when i finish the calculations ill post some stats.

Good luck.