Mmm. Yes and no...
 

Bhagwan, I'll have to disagree with you there. In the next week I'll place my 1000th lay for the year. For most of the year my S/R has been bumping along between 91.5% and 92%. It's 91.7% as we go into todays racing. I don't lay anything over $11.00.


Agreed. Turnover is the name of the game. A stake of around 1% is about right, but I think in terms of liability which I set at just over 12% of bank per lay.

Raven, Chrome is right re getting the best price available but in practice I've found this is pretty hard on the Australian markets. Not alot of business is done in the first 2/3rds of betting time on the selections I like to lay, so I find that in general the best price is available at the jump. I might get a couple of ticks worse than the price quoted in the Betfair Advantage Tool, but I'd much prefer to get completely matched at an ok price than to miss out by hanging on too long for a very slightly better one. Whenever I try to double guess the market I'm inevitably wrong so I just set the bot to shoot off the lay a few seconds after the advertised start time.

There is the occassional exception though. I layed Undue last Saturday quite a bit before the jump and managed to secure $9.60 and I think it eventually started around $13 on Betfair. I'd tipped it as a lay on another forum so wanted to make sure I actually could lay it ;)

Hope that's of some help.

Sorry to sound like a broken record Raven, but this is exactly how layers go broke.

They try to pick the best races to lay in, the horse with the worst form, the horse rising in class, big fields etc etc.

The only way to profit from directly laying one horse per race is to lay it at a realistic price. No matter what the horse is like,the price has to allow you to make a longterm profit, even if it wins.

"Am I happy to have layed this horse at these odds, if it actually wins"

That's the only question you need to ask.

Go broke? Do you mean what I said or what Raven said?

AP, I meant the thinking of putting form before price.

There are tipsters all over the joint who will have 19 successful lays in a row, but that 20th lay that wins @ 50/1 will kill them.

Ok with you. I agree. As you know I'm mostly about price and only use form to support the markets opinion. ;)

You've been quiet of late.

What can be done on Betfair is only limited by your imagination.

frankly im a little befuddled by it all atm, thankfully im not betting yet.

i understand your warnings Chrome, you still have to lay at a price that still gives you an edge.

but atm i think the way to start is to spend most of my time on form study, then select my 'lays' (horses i think have less than 10% chances, maybe 1 to 3 a day) & then lay them when the market gives me an edge.

i dont want to jump right in, lay race after race, make mistake after mistake, & deplete my bank.

Hi Raven,

Heres a simple plan that hits plenty of losers.

2Pt Gap Plan.

. Target the pre-post paper Fav. as per newspaper or racingandsports

. Target the favs that have a 2 pt gap or more in its price shown, over the second Fav listed.
e.g. $3.00 1st fav , $5.00 2nd Fav, this becomes a bet.

. No bet in races with an odds on horse.

. No races with duel 1st favs.

These horses are usually over bet & represent good lay betting opportunities,
because the price is usually nice & low which is what we like to try & achieve if possible.

Its amazing how many of these fall over.

If they do manage to win instead of loose , the damage will be minimal.

Cheers.

He is a method of getting the lay price one wishes for .
Submit ones lay price at 10 cents more than the current Back price.
If any someone takes up some of the Back price , you will be the first one taken up within that batch .

One has to try & remember , that when one submits a Pink price it ends up being placed on the Blue side for some one to take up the price on offer.

So if the is $100 available on the Back side & someone only wishes to take up $10 of it, your submitted price that was 10 cents more, will be included rather than being at the rear of the offered batch of $100

Cheers.

Hi, Bhagwan.

Re your 2 pt gap plan - I have been doing something fairly similar for some time, but the problem is that there is not too much action with my method and consequently I often lose interest.

Excluding Maiden races, I look at pre-post prices where the fave must be between the $2.20 to $3.00 range, then the second-fave must be at least twice the price of the fave. For example there was one such race yesterday which was Bendigo race 6. The p.p. fave was no.8 at $2.50 and the second fave was $5.50 which was scratched. However the third-fave was $7.00, and I more or less accepted that even with the scratching, the fave would not have reduced to less than the minimum price of $2.20 - so it was a qualifying race. There was also one qualifying race on Wednesday - Mackay R7 no.2. - it was unplaced.

As it was, the fave in yesterday's race was also unplaced. The Unitab quinella paid $600, and for the trifecta it paid $10,000. There were 11 runners in the race, so the divvies were exceptional.

I have not considered laying the p.p. fave as I have been more interested in the exotics. However, because of my on-and-off records show a poor strike rate for the fave I will now lay them. And to maintain my interest I will now start a new thread here listing the selections.