I have a feeling when eliminating maiden races and anything less than Open class in the country the results might be better.

I only have the data for Metro races.

Also I have not considered at all horses with no rating.

It might be worth converting the ratings to prices and working out a lay price for the lower rated runners that provides a profit.

Might be an exercise for Cup night :)

Interesting that the lowest rated runner for the Cup is 90 ?????

And that is Railings :eek:

Here are today's selections. I have eliminated from both the Bet and Lay methods any races where the pre-post fave is resuming from a spell. We'll see how they go...

Bet:
Flemington R6 no.3 - Belcentra
Cairns R5 no.1 - Citi Boy
Cairns R6 no.5 - Gunners Barracks
Taree R6 no.1 - Callinan

Lay The Fave:
Flemington R8
Flemington R9
Flemington R10
Canberra R5
Morphetville R5
Mackay R4

Well done on the win bets today Michael.

Does it matter if the Betfair fav ends up different than the Pre post fav?

Hi, Salty.

I'm hoping because of the conflict between the p.p market and Untitab rankings that the real market might not be too accurate. So I lay the horse with the lowest liability which is the Betfair fave. Yesterday provided me a small profit of 1.15 units from the 5 bets.

There were 3 winners from yesterday's 4 selections paying a total of $6.20 for Win bets and $3.90 for Place bets for a loss of $0.10.

Bet.
One selection today:
Kyneton R1 no.2 - Carnegie Lane.

Lay
From yesterday's 6 races (not 5 as stated in my previous post) there was one accident for a profit of 1.15 units.

One race today:
Murray Bridge Race 7.

Here's another Lay The Betfair Fave method I've been testing on paper. I omitted Maidens and races with 8 or less starters.

There's only one rule - the pre-post fave must not be in the top half Trainer rankings shown on the Betfair Aust Racing page. (I also originally began to test Jockey rankings but it did not perform so I discontinued it).

Since 1 Nov there have been 18 of these races, and the Betfair fave has been beaten in all of them. Maybe its simply a matter of coincidence but there's one way to find out - betting with real money which I'll do from today...and hope.

Kyneton R5
Kyneton R6
Kyneton R7
Murray Bridge R7.

HI all,
By coincidence I started doing the same thing starting last wednesday,
It was part of a rule for a place betting system that I was given yonks ago.
and actually someone mentioned this some years back on this forum.
I only have the provicinal and country tracks.
I'm looking at the favourite/non favourite at $2.00 - $3.80 paper price

I actually had four selections on the 1st oct for four wins. (all fav)

Hi, Feather.

It's good to know that it is the basis of an existing Place system. Hopefully it will prove successful.

Bet.
Yesterday's sole selections ran second paying $1.20. It should not have been a selection because it was a Maiden race but as I listed it here it will be recorded as a selection.

Today's selections:
Albury R4 no.3 - The Butler
Pakenham R2 no.2 - Moving On
Pt Lincoln R5 no.1 - One Wild Sea
Pt Lincoln R6 no.3 - Gun Bird.


Lay.
The fave in yesterday's sole race was beaten for a profit of 0.95 units.

Today's Lay races:
Flemington R1
Flemington r7
Rocky R8

A very bad day yesterday - no winners from the 4 selections and only 2 placegetters for a loss of $1.50. I'll give it a little longer and see how it goes.

One selection today:
Charleville R4 no.5 - Nine Covers.


Lay.
The fave in both selections yesterday were beaten for a profit of 1.90 units.

Today's races:
Stony Creek R5
Queanbeyan R6
Charleville R5
Charleville R7

The meeting for yesterday's sole Bet selection was abandoned.

Today's Bet selections:
Flemington R3 no.7 - Extend
Flemington R4 no.1 - El Mandon
Morphetville R7 no.4 - Macca's Mount


Lay
The fave in yesterday's two races was beaten for a profit of 1.90 units.

There have now been 10 successes from 11 races for a profit of 5.90 units.

Today's Lay races:
Flemington R1
Flemington R2
Flemington R8
Flemington R9
Morphetville R6
Geelong R8
Townsville R4