Not to mention that only backing the overs has a significant effect on your strike rate.

One man's overs is another man's unders!

A bookie [or the TAB] comes out in front in the long run, not because he is playing unders and overs on particular horses, but because of his book over 100% for each race. They play a race, not a horse. Applied to the racetrack, they own the Casino 'zero' that Party mentioned ... the Edge and that's the only overlay we can ever be sure of.

Hi Chrome, well, what I didn't say is that no -one will give you 5-4 on black or red will they? it's only BECAUSE of those variables in a horse race that we are able to get overs at all.

Crash, I agree one mans overs is another mans unders. I've always questioned when I read "shorteners" is the way to go, followed by "you must get VALUE" Huh?

But what we are talking about is that "one Man" is a good enough judge to at least break even backing his top 5 ratings regardless, so THEN only back overs, there is a difference there.

Hey I'm not advocating that everyone does this it's not my cup of tea spending half me life travelling to the racetrack and back everyday etc etc . I'm just throwing ideas around.

Another thing to consider is that there are % bookies and there are "opinion" bookies. Mixed in with that as you mentioned they have to BALANCE their books to keep that "edge" whilst one is offering 6-4 about No1 (cos he's taken enough on it) another is offering 15-8 cos he hasn't got enough on it, OR maybe he just doesn't fancy it, this is where there is a tiny window of opportunity.

But Crash you were the man that told me I had to get overs on my place bets, something that I took to heart, though the fixed odds bit I'm not sure about, I feel more comfortable with best tote! (leaving things till the last 15 seconds or so)

If there are any bookies reading this, it would be interesting to hear if we're close or a thousand miles off.

Yep Party, I did tell you you had to get overs on your bets, but I'm sure as heck I never told you how to recognize them!

Yes, Partypooper.

If you were to get the opening price on shorteners and back them you'd make a lot of money.
If you were to lay the drifters at opening quote you'd make a lot of money.
If you were to back drifters that drifted over 40%, you'd make money.
In all that, strike rate is improved or declines dramatically.
The only losing scenario (longterm) is taking the final price on steamers or taking the opening price on drifters.

Yep, that's all good, but how to get on or know what's going to happen?

I've been successfully using the conditional bets option of a bot to flag steamers and drifters and back or lay depending on initial movement of x percent or x ticks.
This only works on liquid markets such as the UK.

But work it does ...... brilliantly.

Last night
laid a horse at $4.90 and it jumped at $6.00
laid a horse at $1.89 and it jumped at $2.04
laid a horse at $3.50 and it jumped at $4.20

Backed a horse at $1.98 and it jumped at $1.64
Backed a horse at $3.75 and it jumped at $2.82

I copped two or three where the movement rebounded, so the bot was wrong, but the overs and unders more than compensated.

Hi Partypooper.

Would have to agree 100 % with you.

My favorite way to bet ( 4 - 5 in the 1 race )

To my way of thinking if there are 4 chances in the race then commonsense would tell you the MINIMUM acceptable price i.e 4 horses = $5 and 5 horses = $6.

Long term ( and thats what racing is all about ) You MUST win .

Cheers.
darky.

Chrome, I've always valued your opinion as you know. The only way I can see of backing shorteners is to stipulate a minimum price, i.e. $100 win X @ Top Fluc, minimum price accepted = 2-1 (or whatever) problem is I don't know how long the bookie would take your bets? and of course you could just as easily be backing drifters.

It's a pity theres no Betfair here in WA though, so many more options..... maybe one day!

Sorry Partypooper I was talking about Betfair.

I have a bot that automates things so I crunch in on a horse when moves x percentage.
If it rebounds it will trigger a stop loss.
Only works on UK or Saturday Aus races, the rest it won't work on because the prices jump all over the place too much as everyone plays cat and mouse and end up in the same spot anyway.

Hi Chrome,

Been keen on using the conditional betting with Betting assistant and would appreciate some help for a novice in this area.

Can you set your conditions to kick in only at a certain time frame, ie 1 minute before the off? Something along those lines.

Thanks in advance.

Hi Youngbuck,

Conditional betting has to be price sensitive, not time sensitive.
There are a few drawbacks though, especially with this new charge for API calls.
You also need to have the program running and updating for it to work, and you need to have the market active on a page.

Effectively if you're doing 10 races, you need them all open on a page updating with the conditions set to trigger.

Very intensive and going to be costly stuff.

You need to have a distinct edge and be turning over enough money to negate the API charges and internet excess download charges.

I'm currently investigating alternatives to cut down costs, not alternatives to the program, but alternate ways to set it up.