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crash 15th April 2008 09:54 AM

I know what Chrome was saying is correct:

Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
"Because you lose less betting on odds on favourites.
Longshots, you have to overcome 30% plus percentages against you versus 5% to 10% against."

But only as far as overall stats. go.

We don't bet 'overall', we bet 1 race at a time and in that situation, the percentages are meaningless, regardless of how many bets we have. Also, a $5 loss on an odds-on favorite is exactly the same $5 loss bet on any other runner. Every race bet is separate from any other bet. Their is no rule that says a longshot punter will lose more than an odds-on punter. It depends on the punter. If I back a horse at say $10, that's not because I think it is a 9/1 chance, it's because I think it's a 3/1 or 2/1 chance!

Chrome Prince 15th April 2008 10:38 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by rumply
Sorry Chrome Prince, have to disagree if your saying the reason to back shorties is because one 'loses less'?

One should take up another pastime if thats the logic they follow.


The logic is pretty logical actually, you have to find a 10% edge to make money as opposed to finding a 30%+ edge.
It's easier to find a smaller edge than a larger edge.

As crash says though, it's probably also easier to find a horse that is completely mispriced at longer odds.

crash 15th April 2008 11:25 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
The logic is pretty logical actually, you have to find a 10% edge to make money as opposed to finding a 30%+ edge.
It's easier to find a smaller edge than a larger edge.

As crash says though, it's probably also easier to find a horse that is completely mis priced at longer odds.


How do you measure 'edge' in a race [especially 10%] accurately? It's only opinion isn't it or is there a 'true odds' handbook each race day I don't know about?

As you said, I have no trouble finding plenty of horses I'd judge [ in my opinion] have 30%+ edge in their odds. I can be out quite a bit and still be mostly on overs, but 10%? $2.70 instead of $3?
Flip a coin, heads your overs, tails your unders. That's about as accurate as anyone will ever get in an individual race before it starts.


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