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-   -   pricing the field and betting overlays (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=17865)

schonegg 28th July 2008 05:31 PM

cairnspunter,
well done. You keep track of details 'on paper'? You've got a pc so use of Access/Excel will greatly speed up your time and possibly accuracy(with Queries, functional analysis etc.)

Crackone 28th July 2008 06:13 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
Hey crackone, was that the one available from a particular systems website?
Dont now where I got them now
Have not used them was going to play around with them but doing something else now.

cairnspunter 28th July 2008 07:27 PM

Thanks Bhagwan, can I ask a stupid question here? what do you mean by base amount? do you mean units of betting, ie when you use the example of $10, you are using a $10 bet as an example?

cairnspunter 28th July 2008 07:44 PM

Thanks Maverick, I pride myself on my maths ability but am a bit lost here so will ask stupid question #2 for the evening - does the 19 denominator in each calculation mean there are 19 horses in the field?

cairnspunter 28th July 2008 07:47 PM

Thanks Mverick, it seems a little subjective but I suppose as long as you are consistent then that doesn't matter.

cairnspunter 28th July 2008 07:54 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by schonegg
cairnspunter,
well done. You keep track of details 'on paper'? You've got a pc so use of Access/Excel will greatly speed up your time and possibly accuracy(with Queries, functional analysis etc.)

For Sydney, Melbourne and Perth I put the Saturdays calculations in an exercise book for each city. Each meeting takes about 1/2hr -3/4hr to do. I really should set something up in a spreadsheet but I just haven't bloopdy well got round to it. I know that in the long run it will end up easier and quicker but I'm a bit time poor. One thing I like about having the actual cutouts from the paper (I use the Sunday Mail in QLD) is that there is a fair bit of information you can flick to at a glance.

I've been at it since about April last year so have got a pretty good database on paper which really should be put into a spreadsheet. Once you get more than a year you can check up on horses that are resuming after a spell and you can have a fair bit of history of races there to peruse.

cairnspunter 28th July 2008 08:00 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by maverick1993
Hi Cairns ,,,i used to be all over speedratings. But sometimes they can be misleading but if you take into account Tempo , interference , wide run ect where would we be without them ,,

I think Sportz means for you to rate a whole race or atleast your top 5 chances so he can show you how to convert the ratings to prices and give you tips on how to bet the overlays.. (check out Baggies method ,,looks good)

If you were dutching on the weekend and won on the race where you had the 3 selections ,,how did you lose ??

How did I lose? The bets were as follows (I used 'top fluc' at Canbet)

Kens Double bet $5 win - Lost
Dark Target bet $5 win - Won paid $1.50
Threedee bet $3 win - Lost
Applelode bet $3 win - Lost
Stavka bet $4 win - Won paid $2.80

Note that the last 3 selections were in the same race.

So for an outlay of $20 I got back $18.70

So I guess the lesson here is I should have put more on Stavka, knowing it was so short.

I know these are piddling amounts but to me its the principle of the matter that's important, the amounts don't matter.

maverick1993 28th July 2008 08:39 PM

Hi Cairns ,

If you had dutched say to profit $100 per race

Kens double @ 2.30 outlay $77 lost $77

Dark Target @ 1.50 outlay $200 won $100

Stavka @ 2.50 outlay $145 return $362
Threedee @ 5.60 outlay $65
Apple Lode @ 6.90 outlay $52 profit with stavka winning $100

This using really bad unitab dives puts you up $123

with that 19 figure in my original post thats just the total of the ratings of the 4 horses i selected ...you could use your own method with the 100 to 121 ratings and just use the same principal..

Crackone 28th July 2008 08:56 PM

cairnspunter you need a dutching calculator

Bhagwan 29th July 2008 12:29 AM

Hi Cairns punter,
That $10 is the allocated base amount for each horse.
You can make this to be 1/40th of your bank.

There is a built in Dutching calculator than do this same exercise for you in the Bet Trader Pro program that I mentioned before, they call it the Bookie program.
You simply place say $10 in the top box then enter your accessed odds into the horses cell next to it, then submit each one individually as their prices come to be greater than your assessed price.
Its all worked out for you.
It works a treat for this exercise.


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