OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Fitness

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)

- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Fitness - The Key To Winning (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=18033)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrome Prince

Crash, this just stood out to me, I'm not having a swipe at you at all.

I would avoid 2yo's backing up quickly, they don't handle the pressure of a lot of racing.

If we eliminate 2yo's and look at other horses who won their last start within 7 days and are favourite this start, we come up with a 2.57% win POT at just TAB prices, and only a 2.23% place LOT at TAB prices.

If we do the same, where the last start was on a Heavy track, we get 73.33% Win POT and 21.56% Place POT.

For Slow, 20.43% win POT and 3.76% place POT.

Just eliminate Colts and Fillies and you wind up making money.

Sorry if it seems I'm always correcting you, the data is just sitting in front of me is the only reason I responded.

Nothing wrong with disagreeing or presenting a different point of view Chrome. My point of view was [obviously] not based on stats. but a part of my approach to form study regarding 'horse fitness' that was relevant to this thread and works for me. I don't feel 'corrected' at all, so no need to apologize.

You can run data about variables 100's of different ways that will [on paper] come with winning percentages. Winning stats. based on past SP favorites don't work in the real world because it's just not possible to always pick and back the SP favorite correctly.

2nd favourites
Slow
7 days
Winner

69.33% Win POT
8.33% Place POT

Interesting stats there Chrom.

Cheers.

They are indeed Bhagwan.H,mm.
Well worth looking into further.

Cheers.
darky.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrome Prince

2nd favourites
Slow
7 days
Winner

69.33% Win POT
8.33% Place POT

4yo
Last start winner
<8 days

S/R 24%
POT 10%

5yo
Last start winner
<8 days

S/R 19%
POT 12%

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stix

4yo
Last start winner
<8 days

S/R 24%
POT 10%

5yo
Last start winner
<8 days

S/R 19%
POT 12%

4 or 5yo
last start winner
<8 days
<$10

S/R 29%
POT 11.5%

These stats must have everyone busy developing their own angle.......he he he.....gone quiet!

Stix, these are tote figures of course - imagine taking Betfair SP :D

Hey STIX,
I for one am and thank you both for putting it on the forum.

SLOW /HEAVY ONLY

WON LAST START WITHIN 7 DAYS

AGE = 4 or 5 YO

FAV or 2nd FAV

Ah .Now for some forward testing eh.

Cheers.
darky

ps.How about ???

SAME CLASS OR DROP IN CLASS

ON PACE RUNNER

SENIOR RIDER TO 1.5 KG APPRENTICE.

Add to any of the above systems: Must have won next start.