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-   -   Top 5 & Second Stringers (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=18243)

partypooper 10th November 2008 11:34 AM

Thanks Percentum, yes I understand now, being an aa-pom I am familiar with combination betting, it was the 31 bets (for 5) that threw me, but now I understand 26 bets in the combo + 5 singles, good stuff, though I didn't realise that AIS were accepting these now.

Worth considering that you can also allot a higher stake for the doubles, and lesser on the Trebles & 4'somes, (i.e. less likely to succeed.) but I would always leave a full unit for the 5 horse accumalator as this can be the lifechanger!

Percentum 16th November 2008 10:04 AM

Percentum's Top 5 Sunday 16 November 2008
 
Think I'll have a go today after a week in hospital getting a knee replacement. For those of you who think it's like changing racing plates, think again. Anyway, enough of this racing metaphor stuff. They are:


NEWCASTLE
R7 no 12 CONVENT HILL
BUNBURY
R7 no 8 UNDERTAKE DANE
R8 no 1 DANGEROUS DANE
HOBART
R7 no 11 ESPRIT OF EVE
R9 no 7 HEARTBREAK KID

partypooper 17th November 2008 12:37 AM

Percentum, once again 1 unit EW level stakes produces an acceptable profit. Just as a matter of interest have you ever run the excercise of calculating the total amount staked over a period of time divided by the number of selections to arrive at an average stake per selection, and then see what the POT would have been had you placed this amount on each selection???? you see what I'm getting at?
Just food for thought, it took me 30+ years to get there!

PS. I could do with a Knee, back, elbow, foot and hip replacement, and I wouldn't mind swapping this gut for a flat one, and maybe adding a few inches somewhere else! hee hee!

Percentum 17th November 2008 10:02 AM

Update Sunday 16 November 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Percentum, once again 1 unit EW level stakes produces an acceptable profit. Just as a matter of interest have you ever run the excercise of calculating the total amount staked over a period of time divided by the number of selections to arrive at an average stake per selection, and then see what the POT would have been had you placed this amount on each selection???? you see what I'm getting at?
Just food for thought, it took me 30+ years to get there!

PS. I could do with a Knee, back, elbow, foot and hip replacement, and I wouldn't mind swapping this gut for a flat one, and maybe adding a few inches somewhere else! hee hee!


Partypooper, I actually haven't done any research tweaking these about and I have reached a stage in life where laziness is appealing. One thing I know I have to do is eliminate horses with just one start to their names as selections. Because they show up in my selection process I've been putting them in but, clearly, this is flawed. Before I started posting these I had a good 40/1 winner called Skirmish in one such bet (4 legs only, 2 won and all placed so return was really good). It had only had 3 starts and I think I might make this my minimum starts cut off point from now on. I think I'll curb my enthusiasm and stick to Saturdays and, perhaps, some cup meetings midweek like the approaching Ballarat Cup. The NZers who show up in my selections have excellent strength and depth in their form and will probably be the mainstays of the successes I have (if any) so I like there to be an accompanying NZ meeting.

As for the spare parts. The getting I don't mind. The process is a bit of a worry though. I thought it'd be a simple pinfiring, out in the paddock to freshen up and then Bob's your uncle. Rehab exercises are painful and I keep finding diversions to avoid them.

Sunday's Results

OUTLAY: $31 W & P
RETURN $7.95 W and $8.64 P

partypooper 18th November 2008 02:03 AM

Percentum, I'm really sorry that you see it as *lazyness* I found the revelation as the opposite, i.e I tried every which way to show a better profit than level stakes, but everytime I applied the formula that I described in my last post (HONESTLY) level stakes won out every time!!

Most simply won't admit it, if I'm wrong on this occasion then I humbly accept defeat!

Percentum 18th November 2008 07:33 AM

Party, Alan Rowland, who formerly owned Punters' Choice before Ian Barns believed that there was no difference between flat level stakes and various staking plans. In the end it all balanced out. The staking plan may have recouped all monies lost in a series with a $2 winner backed at high stakes but, equally, a pittance could have been had on a 100/1 winner earlier in a sequence. (Does this make sense? I'm noy sure. I know what I mean though.)

Percentum 22nd November 2008 09:03 AM

22 November 2008
 
Fingers crossed for these today:

TOP 5
Pukeko
R6 no 1 Culminate
R10 no 13 Valhalla

Adelaide
R7 no 8 Whoishe

Perth
R6 no 2 Fun Spice
R7 no 16 Grand Nirvana

Second Stringers

Brisbane
R6 no 1 Albert The Fat
R8 no 7 Covet Gold

Pukekoe
R7 no 9 Puttanesca
R8 no 3 Ginga Dude


Best Roughie
Pukekoe R6 no 15 Striker

Percentum 26th November 2008 09:26 AM

26 November 2008
 
Might try these today:

Sandown
R5 no 9 Gazza Guru
Bunbury
R8 no 5 Bushels
R9 no4 Delta Bay
Te Aroha
R4 no5 Jessardo
R10 no4 Je Suis

Percentum 28th November 2008 08:59 AM

Top 5 Friday 28 November 2008
 
Lots of depth at Otaki today. Here's hoping for these:
R5 no 15 Regal Secret
R6 no 12 Flavio
R8 no 2 Blackall
R9 no 5 Spartanicus
R10 no 4 Grasshopper

Percentum 29th November 2008 08:55 AM

Saturday 29 November 2008
 
Top 5

Ellerslie
R10 no 11 Mr Cool

Wanganui
R8 no 12 Kovak

Eagle Farm
R5 no 13 stature
R7 no 11 Desdemona
R8 no 12 Framous

Second Stringers
Wanganui
R1 no 2 Inevitable
R7 no 13 Fuji Walk
Eagle Farm
R3 no 16 My Counsel
R6 no 12 Pentacity

Best Roughie
Eagle Farm R7 Doug's Mate


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