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-   -   Favs. dissected (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=18369)

Stix 12th December 2008 07:16 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
33.82% win percentage
Repeat winners? or running after scratched the proposed run before?

crash 12th December 2008 08:32 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
33.82% win percentage


For 2 wins in a row runners?
That's a slightly better SR than favorites. Are you sure, as most runners are struggling to have even a 20% win SR and 33.82% of all runners who win, do it 2 in a row?

If the % is correct and using top fluc. with a 'couple of filters' of course, any punter should be able to print money[?]

partypooper 12th December 2008 10:42 AM

good question: how many winners are placed next run?

crash 12th December 2008 11:55 AM

I don't know about placing Party, but it doesn't make sense that 33.82% win.

partypooper 12th December 2008 01:07 PM

Crash, maybe Chrome means that 33.82% winners that are fav next start win again? (did that make sense)

Stix 12th December 2008 02:26 PM

Horses that have won their last two starts and are favourite next start - Metro Only

All Selection
Sel 3,831
Win 1,358
S/R 35.45%
LOT 12.4%
Av. Div 2.47

Plc 2,490
S/R 65.00%
LOT 7.8%
Av. Div 1.42

Aged <5yo and not resuming
Sel 2,824
Win 1,021
S/R 36.15%
LOT 11.29%
Av. Div 2.47

Plc 1,860
S/R 65.9%
LOT 7.41%
Av. Div 1.41

Aged <5yo and not resuming and Same or less prizemoney
Sel 1,097
Win 427
S/R 38.92%
LOT 10.34%
Av. Div 2.30

Plc 749
S/R 68.28%
LOT 7.93%
Av. Div 1.35

Aged <5yo and not resuming and Same or less prizemoney carrying >57kg
Sel 305
Win 125
S/R 40.98%
LOT 7.28%
Av. Div 2.26

Plc 217
S/R 71.15%
LOT 5.21%
Av. Div 1.33

crash 12th December 2008 03:58 PM

What about horses that arn't favorites as already favorites win a 1/3rd of their starts, so 2 wins in a row for favorites is a bit meaningless isn't it [?].

partypooper 12th December 2008 04:05 PM

Good stuff there Stix, are those Unitab divies?

crash 12th December 2008 04:09 PM

I agree Party [quite a few filters there though], but favorites winning 2 in a row is a bit different than 33.82% of all last last start winners [no specified filters], winning again next start.

Stix 13th December 2008 11:06 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Good stuff there Stix, are those Unitab divies?
Yep unitab divs.


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