Yep, less than 2 legths from winner etc are over cooked by the average punter/tipster

I did post the stats last night, but then thought again about it and removed them (not sure why, maybe this website has jaded me), but will say that a very large % all winners (all ages, All Metro tracks, all track conditions, all states) finished better than 5th at their second last start......

Stix,

Thanks for that, and I can understand 'jaded'. If you search my nom de plume you'll see I have offered some friendly advice and stats previously, without giving away the whole box and dice so to speak.

Your point of a very high percentage of winners finishing better than fifth at its second last start has strong resonance with my emerging method.

Thanks for your assistance.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Got an email address, I'll send the info through.

Stix,

Very generous of you...

Thanks in advance.

luckyboypunts(at)yahoo(dot)com(dot)au


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Have sent email....

Hi Stix,

I have tried a couple of times to send you an email in response to your question, but it has bounced back.

Sorry for the time in responding, but I only check that email address, knowing something has been sent.

Anyway to answer your question. No I don't have the contact details for the person you seek.

And also, the little system I was working on that you helped me out with is bubbling along okay. Another three months and we might be cooking...


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Just out of curiosity I had a quick look at three random Saturday's racing. What I found was that 50-60% of the winners had finished between 1st and 4th at their 2nd last start. That sounds great, but then I went through and counted up all the horses that had finished between 1st and 4th at their 2nd last start, which ended up being between 50-60%. With all due respect, isn't it a bit like saying that a very large % of all winners have four legs, and trying to build a system around it? Or did I randomly choose 3 bad Saturdays to look at? Please understand that I'm not questioning your statistic. I'm questioning whether it is a statistic worthy of incorporating into a selection method, given the similar ratios of winners to the field.

All I can say is it is something that has been thrown up and I continue to use it..... I look at inform 3-4 yo's not rising in weight by more than 1.5kgs.......this is basis for all my selections. Obviously other rules are used........all the best S&S.

I think what Stix is saying is useful, but could be refined a bit more maybe. From those horses that had finished between 1st and 4th at their 2nd last start [which ended up being between 50-60% according to Silver_and_sand's figures], if we check the race times of those 2nd last starts [and why not last starts too?] and ignore the horses that were in slow races, that 50-60% would probably narrow down to about 10%. Now that would be meaningful.

Totally agree Crash.