One interesting option available today is the total games in the Cilic vs Del Potro match. Sportingbet has the line at 40 games, Betfair at 38.5.

Together both players have competed in 48 best of 5 set matches in their careers, of those only 13 have been more than 40 games (15 more than 38.5). A low percentage (27% and 31%).

Effectively people are calling this match going to at least 4, probably 5, sets. Big call for a 50/50 bet.

I'm on the under 40 games at Sportingbet - reckon it is close to a 67% chance of happening.

Best wishes if you have a try.

Cheers

Tony

Well Del Potro vs Cilic ended exactly at 40 games so bookies were spot on the mark there - a refund's better than a loss though.

Quarter Finals time

Djokovic, Novak 3.11 vs RODDICK, ANDY 1.47
FEDERER, ROGER 1.7 vs del Potro, Juan Martin 2.42

Both very interesting match ups and ones that could be very close - I'll look at punting options before posting anything, but am thinking of laying Djokovic and Federer in straight sets (so if Roddick or Del Potro take at least 1 set you're a winner).

Cheers

Tony

The other two Quarter Finals

Simon, Gilles 3.16 vs NADAL, RAFAEL 1.46 - H2H 2-1 in Nadal's favour. Simon 22 wins and 18 losses to lefties (includes the 3 matches against Nadal)

TSONGA, JO-WILFIED 2.47 vs VERDASCO, FERNANDO 1.68 - Not played before, Tsonga 23 wins and 12 losses to lefties, will find this one a tough opponent.

As we get late into these events the prices do tighten up as my ratings will improve for any player who can win 4 matches in a row (especially in the best of 5 scenario). I anticipate Verdasco being big value (books will probably have it the other way around), question is can he back up after a hard one in the heat of the day against a bloke who has a three setter in the cool of the evening (even if his back is giving him trouble).

All the roughies (bookmaker ones that is) will be considered value in my pricing, but the problem is we have them opposing three Slam winners and a Slam Finalist with Roddick being the only roughie who has made it at this level.

In my opinion probably better to leave these matches alone, unless you fancy laying each of the favourites in straight sets.

Cheers

Tony

Semi Final Number One

FEDERER, ROGER 1.67 vs RODDICK, ANDY 2.50 - Add to my pricing a 15-2 H2H advantage for Federer (yep he's won 15 of their 17 meetings, although Roddick did win their last clash priced at 5.65 in Miami last April) and the fact that Roddick had a hard one in the heat of the day and Federer had an easy one in the cool of the night. All of that adds up to a Federer win. Roddick looking a lot fitter than in recent years though so I wouldn't be taking a ridiculous price Federer.

Cheers

Tony

I"ve had a pretty ordinary Open :(

Got back a bit with Verdasco's wins over Murray and Tsonga, but lost a stack on Cilic vs Del Porto arrghh

and a few early upsets killed me.... tursunov, youzhny, gulbis pulled out shockers :mad:

Verdasco and Roddick (if you were on at a bookie who pays out after a set has been completed) were massive overlays for me, pity I didn't tell you all to jump on. Del Potro was shocking last night but at least Simon had some fight in him tonight.

Semi Final from the top half of the draw sees two leftie Spaniards go H2H, with Nadal holding a 7-0 record, Verdasco winning one set in all those matches and that was at Queens when Nadal is backing up quickly after winning the French Open a few days before.

VERDASCO, FERNANDO 2.55 vs NADAL, RAFAEL 1.65

Almost identical pricing to the other Semi with the bloke who has the massive mental edge of winning every time they meet being rated the shorter.

A Nadal vs Federer Final? Now that would be good as it's been a while since we've had a Final in Melbourne of that calibre. Would love the Fed to equal Sampras' record of 14 Grand Slam wins at the first Slam of the year - let every person know that he's not a spent force. For the record at this stage I'd rate Fed favourite over Nadal but it all depends on how they shape up in their Semis (assuming they win of course).

Happy punting and may the lady who got all the favours by having the roof closed for her today get thumped tomorrow (wishful thinking I fear).

Cheers

Tony

The roof should have been closed all day, and for a few of the previous days as well. It was ridiculous. Seriously, what's it going to take before they realise that Melbourne in January is too damn hot to play the Australian Open - a death?

I agree with you though. Williams has been incredibly lucky. Once they'd decided to START her match with the roof open, they should have FINISHED it that way. The conditions didn't change. It was terribly hot when they started the first set and terribly hot when they finished it. And I don't think there's much doubt Williams would have lost if the roof had stayed open.

I backed Serena Williams and Dinara Safina pre-tournament and I've got to say they'd been pretty damn lucky to even make it to the semis. Serena could have and probably should have been beaten twice, and Safina was down 5-2 in the 3rd against Cornet and then could easily have lost to Dokic the other night as well. They both proved too good today though.

I know Nadal is a great player and world no 1 but after seeing Federer tonight i cant see how he can lose the final
$1.75 on unitab
$1.73 on centrebet

Am not allowed to declare certainties but he is that close to a good thing

PS I wouldnt be surpised that they conduct an autopsy after hes dead and say all we found was wires and nuts and bolts LOL

They should play it in Hobart or Brisbane (it rarely gets that hot even in January)