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-   -   Variance...or...Non Profitable? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=18542)

Bhagwan 7th February 2009 08:29 AM

I would suggest betting win only on the $7.90 shots & less.

Bet place only on the $8.00+ shots..

If you could turn your results into percentages, that would be a huge help in working out where the system is at.

Cheers.

mathewg 8th February 2009 05:18 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
If you could turn your results into percentages, that would be a huge help in working out where the system is at.
<$4 1011 bets +$684 =2.4% POT
$4-$6 2288 bets +$3283 =6.2% POT
$6-$8 1896 bets +4420 =8.4% POT
$8-$10 1909 bets -1060 =-2.75% LOT

Sunday 1030 bests +$3215 =13.3% POT
Monday 459 bets +$858 =7.9% POT
Tuesday 481 bets -$164 =-1.4% POT
Wednesday 903 bets +$1044 =4.9% POT
Thursday 790 bets -$1674 =-8.6% LOT
Friday 844 bets -$2678 =-11.9% LOT
Saturday 2597 bets +$6726 =10.2% POT

I am sure the answer is a pineapple. But I don't think I will change anything, Friday was a good day, and yesterday was a shocker, go figure......lol.

possie 22nd February 2009 04:49 AM

From the info you've provided matthewg, I myself would probably just stick to Sat and Sun as it doesn't seem worth the effort to do weekdays. That increases your historical data's POT to around 11-12%.

jayjones1 22nd February 2009 09:28 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by possie
From the info you've provided matthewg, I myself would probably just stick to Sat and Sun as it doesn't seem worth the effort to do weekdays. That increases your historical data's POT to around 11-12%.
i stay well away from weekdays nothing but trouble

mathewg 23rd February 2009 08:36 PM

I am hearing you, I have almost had enough of midweek as well!

stugots 24th February 2009 09:28 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by jayjones1
i stay well away from weekdays nothing but trouble


Quote:
Originally Posted by mathewg
I am hearing you, I have almost had enough of midweek as well!



lol, yeh a 'walk in the park' like last saturday are just a license to print money....

give me your average provincial meet any day

Stix 24th February 2009 10:11 AM

It's just another punter-ism...... Don't bet odds-on, don't bet midweek, don't bet on wet tracks, don't bet on horses up weight/class, don't back horses dropping back in distance, Don't bet on maidens/2YO races.....

Every punter has to find things that work for them, but the stats do have a role in backing up the rationale... I find it near on impossible to turn a profit in Sydney - maybe it's more to do with Xanadu's suspisions than my selection methods :eek:

wesmip1 24th February 2009 05:44 PM

Quote:


Don't bet odds-on, don't bet midweek, don't bet on wet tracks, don't bet on horses up weight/class, don't back horses dropping back in distance, Don't bet on maidens/2YO races.....



You have named all the best places to bet caue a lot of "quality" punters ignore them and they are full of mug punters.

The only issue is having the angle in those sorts of situations to know when to bet and when to wait.

Good Luck

crash 25th February 2009 09:27 AM

One thing about weekday race meetings is that false favorites are easier to spot. Not so easy on Saturdays but they still regularly lose [especially in the big races as we have seen over the last couple of weeks]. Doesn't help a lot though as the possible winners to beat them is usually many of the other runners [often a dart job or a fluke choice].

Shorty backers are probably better off sticking to Sat. but weekdays for form students can be a goldmine for win or place punters looking for very good odds. I tend to stick with the last 4 races at a meeting and specialize on Victoria racing, my home state. Specializing helps a lot.

There are many roads to winning [and even more to losing]. Some suit and some don't, depending on the punter. There is no 'best' way or rules to punt as every punter is different.


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