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-   -   Betting systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=18621)

Mike367 25th February 2009 02:48 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Yes I don't wanna be a "Partypooper" but not all of that is correct......I know!

But Chrome has the "acid" you have to get the best possible price. + goodies

Shaun, almost there BUT, 69% S/R @ ave divi of $1.50c = Retirement +
I'm not really sure what you mean, what are "goodies" and don't say 3 funny men from tv.

Also a "69% S/R @ ave divi of $1.50c = Retirement +" what sort of staking plan would you use to make this work and protect my bank?
Mike.

Mike367 25th February 2009 02:56 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
There are systems contained on this forum for free that are better than most for sale at any price, spend the time and use the search features to find some thing you like.

Backing favs for a place is not realy the way to go, you would need a 75% strike rate at best.

Well, I was hoping someone would mention one or two that they had some success with, or some to avoid.

Can we mention the names of systems without being censored?

Mike367 25th February 2009 02:59 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by TWOBETS
Welcome Mike,


Find a way to spot the dubious favorites and hey presto your in a Roller! It only took me six years............sad really.

Don't suppose you would like to share?
No? didn't think so lol

partypooper 25th February 2009 03:42 PM

Mike367, By way of a positive reply, I've tried every known staking plan, and at the end of a period of time added up the total number of stakes, divide by the number of bets , apply that figure as level stakes and the result is the same, as for goodies,........ well let's just say that there are many incentives offered by various bookies (outfits) and you can manipulate it to a certain extent, but it's only icing on the cake, you have to have a winning plan in the first place.

Remember that the casino only has a tiny advantage on the roulette wheel but it's a license to print money in the long run.

lomaca 25th February 2009 07:21 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike367
Maybe you could post some details or pm them to me.
I'm not sure PM is enabled on this forum, but the filter I referred to, has been mentioned here before, and only needs periodical updating and fine tuning if you have a database. If not, all the info is now available free on racing websites.

Mike367 26th February 2009 05:15 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
I'm not sure PM is enabled on this forum, but the filter I referred to, has been mentioned here before, and only needs periodical updating and fine tuning if you have a database. If not, all the info is now available free on racing websites.

Ok, well if you or anyone else will share some of their hard earned information with me ,then please email me mjm367@gmail.com

Meanwhile I'll try to find the filter you mean.


Thanks
Mike

Bhagwan 26th February 2009 10:01 AM

Hi Mike
It looks like you are being put through "guess the riddle" my friend.
"They can be a twitchy mob when it comes to a puntin, so don't go round stirren them up cranky like".

Its a riddle to me as to what filter is being suggested here... maybe its a secret riddle .

Jokes aside...
One strong filter which has been mentioned in the forum, is one where we compare the pre-post price (PP) to Bookmakers price.
If bookies price is shorter than PP - strong Back bet
If bookies price is longer than PP - strong Lay bet.

Here's a winning plan that takes discipline to work but it does work.
SR is 45% and 35% POT when I last tested it at level stakes.


NEXT FAV PLAN
The idea is that we target the next live market Fav on Betfair, once we see a Fav get up to win.
In other words we are looking to bet the 2nd winning Fav on the day.

.Follow the Betfair market Fav for each race for each venue.
We do not bet on this Fav. as yet, until one gets up

.Each venue is looked at separately to the others.

.Min 8 races for that venue , otherwise drop that venue from contention.

.Wait for a Fav to get up at that venue within the first 4 races only.
If no winning Fav within those first 4 races, drop that venue for the reset of the day.

.If we see a Fav get up to win within the first 4 races only.
We start betting the next 4 races until we strike a winner, stopping at the first winner or we bomb out on 4 races in a row, at that venue.

.We only bet a max of 4 bets at any one venue.

.Now do the same for all the other venues with 8-10 races.

.Bet 2% of bank. Not reducing.

One can go over past TAB results to get an idea how it has performed in the past.


Use BetTraderPro (Free through Racing Traders)) for placement of minimal bets of 1c+ if one wishes to bet below the Betfair min.

Use this idea on Betfair only.


Cheers.

Mike367 26th February 2009 02:35 PM

Thanks Bhagwan, and everyone else for you help.

I've only used the TAB and don't know anything about Betfair. But I'll soon change that.

The Betfair plan, is that ok to use everyday or just the Sat meetings?

Thanks again,
Mike

Mike367 26th February 2009 05:54 PM

Is betfair online only? You see I work Mon to Fri and every second Sat (during the day), And have no internet at work. All I have is a phone (mobile) and the trusty form guide fron the Herald Sun. Oh I'm in Vic by the way.

I was thinking of backing the Fav, under the following conditions

raced within the past 21 days
Raced over a similar dist previous race
Won at track and distance previously
No more than 15 horses in field
Draw no wider tha barrier #8

I need a plan that suits my limited experence, and where I can get all the information from the form guide.

I don't impulse bet anymore and I've learned not to chase my losses!!
Now for some consistant, if small gains.

Anyway what do you think??
Be honest, I can take a bit of critcism
Cheers Mike

P.S. You may think this is a silly question but what do you guys mean by POT? S/R is strike rate and +/-123 is amount won/lost?, but I don't get POT???
Mike

partypooper 26th February 2009 06:42 PM

Mike367, hey that's an easy one that I can answer. POT means Profit On Turnover. eg. say after a given length of time you have made bets of say $10,000 and are showing $1000 profit, then you have a POT of 10% (most pros so I'm told would be happy with something like that) personally I would LOVE 10% POT, I haven't achieved it long term (yet)

PS. I think your plan to have any chance you would have to bet at least Best Tote+ SP, or at least Top Fluctuation (both readily available)

A couple of filters that you may want to consider is
(a) must have a win in exposed form i.e. last 4 runs (this time in)
(b) a win % of at least 25%

also look closely at restricting the distances (this is a personal preference) say 1200m to 1999m

Good luck!


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