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-   -   Reversing the book (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=18658)

Bhagwan 10th March 2009 03:56 AM

Hi Party,
I have found that the concept you are trying seems to be easier to work where the Fav is paying 3.20+

Once the Fav gets below this figure , the slightest difference to the Fav can throw ones figures around dramatically.

Cheers.

partypooper 10th March 2009 08:57 AM

Hi Bhags, in gerneral I don't see fluctuatuions as a problem as I'm betting at fixed odds, unless you mean it fluctuates before you can get on?

But again, in my example (2) even if you bet at top fluc , any movement in odds doesn't affect anything as you have got TOP fluc. But I am told that deductions still apply to top fluc. is that right?

Mark 10th March 2009 03:19 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Mark, thanks for that, yes I like that feeling of risk free, BUT the 00 always hangs around with the threat of deductions , but you have made me feel better about that, as I only think in terms of LONG LONG TERM.

Just two things I wanna run past your experience in the matter:

(1) Do you think there is any merit in still making the betting if the book stands at say 102% (including those 50-1 shots) i.e. if they do get up and very rare then you have only done 2% or so, but in the meantime have included many more races for a profit?

(2) Working out the bets at fixed price , only betting where you can gain a minimum of 1%, BUT place the amounts at Top Fluc which seems to almost always beat the fixed odds? get my drift? in other words you were set at say 2% but if (and nearly always is the case that top fluc beats the fixed odds ), but of course adds another element of risk IF it doesn't???



You've lost me a bit on (1). If you mean backing all but the outsiders, let's say @ 96%, and one of them gets up.....you're out of pocket big time.
(2) There's the risk, however I don't know much about top fluc as all of my betting is now with BF, except when the bookies offer "free" bets. (mmmm free bets) now there's the ultimate in risk free.


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