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Sounds like you've hit on the problem/mistake most people make Paul in simply finding the best sectional in the race which is invariably the horse who gets too far back and runs on well under pressure...but is not usually the horse you want to back next start - unless you're confident something will change next start eg better barrier.

Exactly correct Steve. I am pretty well assured that the number of runners who ARE NOT in the first third of the field at the turn win 30% of races compared to those who are in the first third of the field at the turn, that being of course 70%.

I once also went through all my bets and looked at such things as change in course/distance/class/weight and days slr. The only two things to come of this were, dont back them if they go up 3kgs or more (missed a couple of winners here and there, but saved on a lot of losers), and stick to within the 21 days. I figure that the trainer should be astute enough to place his/her horse to its best advantage. For all of my bb'ers I used to go back to its prior preps and see what it did at the same stage of such preparation. It is amazing how much horses are creatures of habit, if it wins it 4th start this preparation, there was a good chance it did the same last prep and even the one before. I was then of course interested to see what it did at its next run (in the previous prep). The thing was I still backed my selection anyway, so I just keep things simple these days. Add em and back em....!

Paul