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-   -   Triple Selection Method (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=19565)

Try Try Again 24th November 2009 11:10 AM

Hi Partypooper,

I think you will find Thorn Dancer was $1.60 (Best Tote), $1.70 (SP) and $1.80 (TF). It may have been better on Betfair but I do not use this outlet.

partypooper 24th November 2009 03:35 PM

TRY, probably,....... I backed it with Sportsbet so was paid $1.80c, I thought I saw TF was $1.90c but was only going from memory. But in general these shorties seem to be better backed TF.

Try Try Again 24th November 2009 06:21 PM

Hi Partypooper,

You must have backed it at Top Flucc. as I also backed it with Sportsbet but only at Citybest+ and got paid $1.70. Your thoughts about backing the "shorties" at Top Flucc. are well supported here!

Where do you draw the line about Top Flucc and Citybest+? What price do you consider one over the other? Any thoughts?

partypooper 25th November 2009 12:44 AM

Try, well for me I reckon that 3-1 is the cut off i.e. up to 3-1 ($4) back at Top Fluc, over $4 back at Best Tote/Sp is available or of course best of 3 totes if not (different mob)

Problem is what to use for the guide, for me I use the WA TAB-FORM pre post prices, I haven't really tried others so I don't know which is more accurate really, but I have been told previously that the Turf Talk radio prices are near the mark but I miss the broadcast or get tied up with a customer etc etc. so I just prefer the TAB FORM.

Good luck!

Mancunian 25th November 2009 09:55 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Try Try Again
I'm putting up this selection method because it shows a high win strike rate (40% to 50%), but unfortunately it only breaks even at Best Tote. Someone may be able to tweak it to show a better return.

Use Unitab site.

Selection must be the same first selection by Radio Tab and Tipster. It must also be the 100 point rater on Unitab.

That's all. It has been showing consistent results since 1st September 2009.

I have not considered class of race, distance, number of starters, track conditions or day of race.


I've been looking at almost the same thing for a while prompted by Party and michaelg in the thread "100 Raters" a few months ago.
I use - Unitab 100 rater / RadioTab 1st selection, and the top rater from another source. If at least 2 of the 3 sources have it on top then I apply a couple of Partys suggested qualifiers (thanks PP).
For your info re consistency the precis of the results from mid April 09 up to 31 Aug is :
Out 210, Win return 213.80, Place return 204.10 (Unitab for simplicity.
This is any day of the week any venue (in Australia) covered by Unitab.
cheers.....Mancunian

Try Try Again 28th November 2009 06:51 PM

Thanks Partypooper.

I used your suggestion of taking Top Flucc at <=$4.00 (using pre-post odds from Saturday Herald-Sun) and although 2 of the 3 winners it didn't matter the third winner gave an extra 40c on the win dividend compared with SP/Best Tote dividends. It all adds up!

By the way 3 winners and 2 seconds from the 5 bets today. Fingers are still crossed!

partypooper 29th November 2009 01:21 AM

TRY, glad it worked for you today, there was a couple of juicy ones ey? remember though sometimes it can go the other way and you are cursing, i.e. Top Fluc $3, when one of the totes pays $3.80 or something BUT overall it tends to swing to Top Fluc on the <$4.01c

I ended up in front BUT it could have been the big one if Cassandras Shadow had done done just a little bit better!! ah well, NEXT WEEK EY?

Try Try Again 29th November 2009 02:41 PM

Could have been a big day for you Partypooper if Cassandras Shadow had gone 2 places better (and to be beaten by two outsiders as well!).

I have gone back over my results and if I had taken Top Flucc instead on SP/Best Tote I would have improved my POT% by 2.2%.

As you said there will be "swings and roundabouts". In the past few months there has been 43 winners with 12 being the same, 20 better and 11 worse using Top Flucc over SP/Best Tote.

Wouldn't it be great if you could predict when one way was better then the other!

partypooper 29th November 2009 03:17 PM

Try, for selections at Melbourne remember that LUXBET, does BOB (best of best) i.e. you are paid Top Fluc or best tote whichever is higher. This is the product that we want across the board, I'm sure it will come!

Try Try Again 30th November 2009 12:11 PM

Thanks for the heads-up Partypooper, I didn't know that. Yes, it would be great if all operators offered "BOB"! Bring it on.


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