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-   -   Market Manipulation (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=19680)

lomaca 14th January 2010 12:54 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
I believe that IAS and LuxBet don't restrict you.
Alex Read told me they don't ban winning punters.

Haven't tried them CP, after a few bad experiences I gave up on them.
On the long-shots I'm betting on, the TAB is usually better anyway.
Will contact them tho, and see what happens, wouldn't mind more than two avenues open, gives you a choice for better odds.

Thanks

lomaca 14th January 2010 01:35 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
On the long-shots I'm betting on, the TAB is usually better anyway.
Case in point Grafton race 3, my first selection No. 13. Supertab $7.4 IAS just checked, Fixed price $6.00.

Incidentally it won and I'm OK for the day.

Cheers

Ps
Correction, I have an account with Q. TAB but its odds are ususally worse than Supertab so I hardly ever use it, but just checked, my horse paid $9.20 on Tabonline and I missed it, coises!

ixlat0 14th January 2010 01:40 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Tom Waterhouse will let you on Top Fluc to the jump, but only if your selection drifts.

How kind!

That's kind of like advertising cheaper broadband, but only if you don't use it.
:D
or like taking out a fixed loan with a bank which only applies if the rates drop
:rolleyes:

ixlat0 14th January 2010 05:20 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
So am I reading this right, take this example:

Horse opens at $3.00, first fluc is at $2.75, but then later drifts out to $3.50, this horse would be under the category that show a break even at TAB prices?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Thorns, you're an astute man.
I was hoping nobody would pick up on that.
i thought that was the point of your original post -- so did thorns :)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Clearly the boys manipulating the markets by seeding bets on the tote on other horses to blow out the price of their fancy have turned the market around in the last five years.
I don't believe that this is bookies laying off on the tote, as the firmers would be less value, it is obviously market manipulation.

thorns 15th January 2010 03:27 PM

Chrome,

Do you have figures for those that open at 3 or less, and ONLY drift in price?
Would these be close to a lay proposition? Have had a look over the previous few days, and looks as though it could almost be an option.

Chrome Prince 15th January 2010 07:06 PM

Yes, it's close a definite lay approach if you get the right odds.

Top Fluc -6.45%
Bet Tote -0.90%
Best of Tote & SP 1.28%
SP -9.34%

This is for backing those that open $3.00 or less and only those that drift.

I have to retract my previous statement about Betfair not being better value wise, I have been scooping up massive overs on favourites, I don't know what some people are doing, but it's like winning lotto.

I'm not bragging, I am just astounded at what some guys will lay at.

Unconquerable Top Fluc $4.00 I got $7.00
Helvetia Top Fluc $11.00 into $8.00 I got $12.50
Craiglea Royale Top Fluc $2.00 into $1.80 and back out to $2.00, I got $2.50 and $2.60

Amazing.

Bhagwan 16th January 2010 05:37 AM

It just reinforces what poor value the TABs are , which are usually less than the bookies prices for the 5.00 & less shots.

If one just takes note of the price difference between the TABs & Betfair prices the gap can be astounding.

Sometimes 200-300% difference.

Why would anyone want to bet with the TAB were price cant be secured & the prices usually lower, yet millions of dollars are still put out there through the TABs.

No wonder the Govt treats punters as fools ,when they continually take lower value than what can be had on say Betfair .

You gotta laugh.


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