OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)

- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Lay Anomaly (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=19725)

Quote:

Originally Posted by michaelg

Yes, its not doing too badly at the moment.

However, my concern is that the prices I'm using for the accidents (25% on top of the Unitab liability) is unrealistic. For example, if the winner pays $3.00 on Unitab then I'm assuming a Betfair lay price of $3.80. If/when I start laying on Betfair only then will I know.

Two selections today:

Stawell R4 no.12 - Uma Love
Stawell R8 no.6 - Nevajoe.

I think 25% is more than enough. I have found from my thousands of results with UniTAB and BF lay prices recorded, that as a rule of thumb those under $10 are around %15-16 higher on average on BF, so I think using 25% if anything is being a bit excessive. However, it is better to err on the side of caution. Obviously once you start getting into the higher payers, the sky is the limit when it comes to Bf prices.

Generally if I'm testing a lay system using TAB divis I multiply by 1.2 to give me a feel as I usually am targetting those up to around $7 on BF max.

Hi, Thorns.

I think there are two ways of looking at it.

1) PRICE - If a horse pays $1.50 on Unitab then a 20% increase on its price comes to $1.80 ($1.5 x 1.20).

2) LIABILITY - In the above example the TAB liability is $0.50 whilst a 20% increase comes to $0.60 which translates into a price of $1.60.

I don't know which method is correct. I suppose it boils down to Betfair's price being closer to $1.60 or $1.80, or even maybe the average of them being $1.70?

However, I would assume each $1.50 Unitab horse can easily differ on Betfair depending on circumstances, so there may not be a conclusive answer?

Its quite possible the results of my testing may not be as good as hoped.

After saying all that, using your method would make me feel more confident, but we'll never really know what prices we would have obtained when testing a method.

Yesterday there was one accident of $1.70 from the two selections. I don't know if the method would've won or not, but either way the loss/profit would have been minimal.

If today's selections don't crash I'll probably bet with real money tomorrow.

Today's selections:

Mackay R1 no.4 - Work'n'Save
Mackay R4 no.4 - Pershinko
Mackay R7 no.8 - I'm Hot
Cessnock R2 no.4 - Best On Board
W'bool R3 no.4 - Russian Bond
W'bool R4 no.1 - Beatboy
W'bool R5 no.4 - Tuscan Wings.

Hi all,
Going to the Betfair seminar tomorrow. If any one has a specific question for me to ask them please let me know and I will do so
Cheers
B

Sorry wrong post.Should be in Betfair article.
B