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-   -   Question for Darkydog (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=20065)

peter m 5th April 2010 08:22 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
I agree darky in fact I've always said that the prices (even Pre post) ARE a ratings service. I've noticed so far that IAS first 4 usually jags the winner.

But I would like to see actual stats if anyone has em' ??
According to Malcolm Knowles in one of his earlier publication there is a high correlation between the rankings of the pre post market and the SP market.
Maybe not the actual price but the order in which the horses are rated. He even gives a pre post to SP conversion table and reckons it's pretty accurate.

Would you take IAS prices as being pretty spot on...or as close as you're going to get anyway?

enjay 5th April 2010 08:37 PM

If you want tomorrows prepost tonight (Most newspapers) go to

http://www.**************.com.au/ and click on formguides.

Cheers.
Enjay

Bhagwan 6th April 2010 01:21 AM

Your right about those pre-post rankings .

The interesting stat was using the pre-post market to calculate quinella divs.

It was amazingly close to the actual TAB payout figures.

The top 5 SR in the pre-post was within 5% of the final TAB SR.
That's better than most subscription services.

Mancunian 6th April 2010 03:21 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
I remeber years ago someone on the othe punting forums has a method where he would target the top 4 I think from IAS and was consistently making a profit. He got pretty much laughed off teh forums being told you cant do it, but it seemed to work for him. Will try dig up that thread if I can, think he has some stats for the top x amount of selections as well.


Thorns, coincidentally I was just looking at that since this thread began - try PA forum search for Midweek tactic - verrrry interesting.
cheers..........Mancunian

thorns 6th April 2010 03:39 PM

Thats the thread I remembered. Cheers for that Mancunian. I wonder how that method goes since that was posted years ago.

Mancunian 6th April 2010 05:11 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
Thats the thread I remembered. Cheers for that Mancunian. I wonder how that method goes since that was posted years ago.

I had a go on paper today - looks promising,will put in report later tonight.

Mancunian 6th April 2010 08:32 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mancunian
I had a go on paper today - looks promising,will put in report later tonight.

Ref. "Midweek tactic"
First look - results for today, using my interpretion of the guidelines.
Basically looking at all races except 2 that only had 6 starters
Ballina - 7 races - outlay $699 return $739.20
W'bool - 7 races - outlay $699 return $722.10
If eliminating those races where the profit looked to be less than 20%
Ballina - 4 races = out $400 return $327.10
W'bool - 4 races = out $400 return $499.20
Total out $800 return $826.30
Here we go again, another promising system that may turn out to be about break even (or slightly below)
BUT - Ballina was a heavy track and I wouldn't have been putting money on.
AND - I wasn't necessarily following the rules precisely.
I got the IAS prices, to establish the top 4 selections, then Dutched those horses using S/TAB (which is the only place I've got money currently).
Its close enough to encourage another look or two to see how it performs.
May not have much time in the next few days, but will keep in touch with anything further.
Cheers.......Mancunian

Bhagwan 7th April 2010 09:09 AM

I tried a search for that thread on PA but could not find it .

Would it be possible for someone to give us the page number.

petstep 7th April 2010 09:25 AM

Go to Horse Racing Forum. Click on search. Type in"midweek AND tactic".

partypooper 7th April 2010 06:26 PM

Further thoughts on this as I progress with some data, at first sights it seems logical i.e. the "book" is usually
around 120% so back the first 4 only at least 20% over and you can't lose eh? eventually.

But it's starting to remind me of a plan that I used for a while with pre-post favs, i.e. overall they (PP Favs.) showed a
loss of around 10%, with an average price of (from memory) of around 2-1, so the idea was to only back em' when you
could get at least 5-2, seems logical,.......... er....... problem was I started to show an INCREASED LOT. Didn't take
too long to realise that the higher the price the lower the S/R and so the greater the LOT.

I haven't quite figured out if the case will be the same with this one but I suspect it will (unfortunately)

One thing though, using the same idea, but backing on Wed/Sat with bet fair SP & with your Min. price stipulation,
(as explained by Bhagwan)
that would take a lot of the work out of it and in a better pool may just tilt it the right way.


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