Wow! Shaun, 75%@$1.85c, you have my admiration, I can't get anywhere near that. It must be the quality of the Ratings.

As i said small sample maybe just some luck, but i did make adjustments to the ratings so i hope it continues.

Here is todays races, lets see the forum curse knock me down, the race times are WA times

Never again, grrrr 2 losses 2 zero return races so far

Jack
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by partypooper Jack, facts are cold, for this plan 30 times out of 100 we would break even, we would then get 20 winners ( IF we are VERY lucky) from the remaining 70 races with a total outlay of 210 points, so we would need an average of $10.10c per winner to just break even......... sorry we are NOT going to get that, the plan cannot win (sorry Bhags)

Hi Party,
Would you explain the arithmetic of your workout ?

Morning Jack, well ,say 100 races, 3 bets per race = 300 units bet . In almost all cases the FAV would be in the tipsters top3 and we know that the FAV has 30$ S/R,............. so 30 times it will win in 100 races, we have staked roughly 1/3 of the total outlay per race to break even on the FAV.

So now we have 70 remaining races 3 bets per race = 210 we know that in 70 cases the FAV will NOT win so that takes care of roughly 70 units (taking an ave.of say $3.3) the remainer is split between the 2 remaning conveyances (level stakes) we know that about 20 of these will win (i.e. overall S/R of 50%) we have still 210 units invested, we would have to get $10.10c per winner to just break even overall.

Obviously each individual race will not pan out exactly like that, eg. one race may have $4, $6, $10 so theres 25% on the $4 shot and 37.5% on each of the others, and sometimes of course the $10 will win (roughly 1 time in about 8) conversly sometimes you may have $2, $5, and $12, so you stake 50% on the $2 shot, and 25% on the other 2 etc etc. but over time the stakes will be roughly 1/3 on each, averaged.

Jack
 

Hi Party,
Thank you for your explanatiion

One approach would be to target a race were the other 2 horses total $12.00+ once both prices are added together, after saving on the Fav.
Otherwise no bet race.

E.g.
1st-3.00
2nd- 5.00
3rd - 7.00

This would be a bettable race because the 2nd & 3rd selections add up to $12.00 in price.

If targeting the top 3 favs in the live market.

Combined SR 65%
30%
20%
15%

If our average price on the 2nd & 3rd selection is say 6.00 (12.00 combined) at 35% SR
= Ret 210.00

Saving on the Fav Ret 100.00

Total Ret 310+
O/L -----300

We have just mentioned the min possible , there is always the juicy payers in between that make up the big difference.
Just have a look at what some of those 3rd favs pay when they get up where there is a combined $12.00 total for the 2nd & 3rd Fav.

If you have some doubt about this ,start laying them & see what happens to one's bank balance.

Cheers.

Sounds good Bhagwan, though my suspicion is that the 65% S/R is including all the shorter ends of the market, as soon as you restrict to price the S/R will be more like 45%. My conclusion is that if you just used this plan occasionally when going to the races or something its ok, (yesterday would have been great) but as a long term winner, I don't think so. As far as laying is concerned well, we can lay every system ever invented and win can't we?