Thanks bobbydazzler,

Hoping Nicconi can get up tonight for the Aussies!

The Schmile

The cat amongst the pigeons
 

“It depends a lot on your strike rate and personality type.”
For my money it depends entirely on your strike rate and average dividend.

I also believe that if one is expecting to live off the profits of punting, then staking variables should only be considered once a system has proved itself profitable at level stakes.

“it is impossible to make money with under priced horses”
While I agree that this is usually the case, the above concept is far too simplistic. Bring on the shorties !.......
Surely if a horse wins and pays $1.10 for the win then the people that layed it were wrong. I know that most people assume that this was just one race and over ten races then that horse would lose 2 or 3 so in fact the people that backed it were the mugs. This is of course where I disagree. That race isn’t the same as the next nine races. If you know your stuff and you know this horse is going to win this race then $1.10 was a great price to score. Now please somebody don’t start with the “what if a seagull comes and hits him in the face” or “what if the jockey has a heart attack”.

What it boils down to is your own strike rate at any given odds scenario. Whether the horse is overs or unders depends on whether it wins or loses. If you thought a horse was overs and it loses then it wasn’t overs, it was that you overlooked something in assessing the race. (and vice versa of course).

So again gents, I’m not disagreeing with you, I just think you are missing the relevance of your own particular strike rate.

Could not agree more

Given the way we can calculate the price BEFORE the race, how can one accurately tell whether a horse is unders or overs in general?
We can't, not really with any great accuracy!

It all depends on the type of ratings used, that's why for instance you get different prices from the Neural rating, using either Don Scott's ratings or neural ratings

The best is to stick to one set of ratings and use that all the time for assessing unders and overs.
Provided of course that the rating has some merit in the first place.

This is actually the answer to the question Stix posed on an other thread, that is there are no accurate pre-post prices, one maybe better that others but in the end it's best to just use one rating you are happiest with and stick to it.

Thanks Iomaca, but just trying to get some feedback on which source people use. I've never really looked at PP's in any detail.......I guess a consesus on what people use would be a fair starting point....

Yes it's the weight of money that eventually determines the final price, and as Twobets said, if a horse wins at $1.10 by a head then it was at the correct price, if it wins by 5 len. then it was overs, even at that price and if it lost, then it was unders.

But we don't know that until the finish!

This of course assuming that every horse had a fair chance in running, and nothing untoward was going on.

spot on .....
do the ratings consistently each week.....
when that horse crops up every now and then that rates well but is 20/1 plus at the tote..stop scratching your head... GET ON IT......don"t question it ......

I realise this publication is somewhat unpopular on the forum, due to an over inflated opinion of their own system creation 'genius', however i came across this article this morning and found it rather poignant, in relation to previous posts.

Especially the ideas:

1/ Before a staking plan is implemented, it's paramount that a system/strategy is making a profit level stakes.

2/ One is able to accurately price a market or has a consistent set of ratings.

Worth checking it out.

http://www.practicalpunting.com.au/...It%20Cool/15322

The Schmile

Could not agree more.......
after eighteen months i am only now thinking of making a change from level stakes - and only to 1.5% of bank (variable)... i believe i worked too hard for the bank to disappear in a fit of stupidity with mug drunk punting ( my previous profession )... i dont even watch or follow the races anymore ...... just do the boring maths each week...place bets early sat and check results sunday.....

I believe one should drink as much beer as possible while punting because it helps numbs the pain - it works.

Any particular brew you recommend Bhagwan?

I for one fancy a delicious German Pilsner. No preservatives, easier the next day!! ha ha

The Schmile