OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)
-   Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)
-   -   Calling maths experts... (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=20540)

TWOBETS 22nd September 2010 07:49 AM

In a nutshell Michal !
 
I'm most impressed with these observations Michal. They are I believe the very essence of the difficulty of turning a system into an income. Remember bryzz that even if that system did great all year there's nothing to say it wouldn't all go belly up for a year after that.

Real time betting is critical to system testing, and I also believe a system hasn't proven itself until you're COMFORTABLE putting income earning sized wagers on.

One of the reasons I ended up doing short prices only was because the consistency factor is so much easier to handle.

bryz55 22nd September 2010 08:51 AM

Ok then there's only one more thing to do befor I go live. What is the cheapest system testing data base that goes back five years? I feel quite confident that it may hold up maybe not at that POT but with the price range, the profit isn't made up of just a few big dividends. And take any section of the sample time and the s/r is very similar. I believe the use of best tote will help too which hasn't been factored in.

Winner winner chicken dinner!

Shaun 22nd September 2010 09:18 AM

There is a free online one around here some where but not sure how accurate it is, there is also one for sale on this website.
http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=17950

jfc 24th September 2010 08:55 AM

http://statpages.org/confint.html

This indispensable tool shows your observed strike rate of 52/158 reduces to sustainable one of 25.65%.

Suggesting a sustainable POT of 11% rather than the observed 37.8%.


All times are GMT +10. The time now is 10:21 PM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.