In a nutshell Michal !
I'm most impressed with these observations Michal. They are I believe the very essence of the difficulty of turning a system into an income. Remember bryzz that even if that system did great all year there's nothing to say it wouldn't all go belly up for a year after that.
Real time betting is critical to system testing, and I also believe a system hasn't proven itself until you're COMFORTABLE putting income earning sized wagers on. One of the reasons I ended up doing short prices only was because the consistency factor is so much easier to handle. |
Ok then there's only one more thing to do befor I go live. What is the cheapest system testing data base that goes back five years? I feel quite confident that it may hold up maybe not at that POT but with the price range, the profit isn't made up of just a few big dividends. And take any section of the sample time and the s/r is very similar. I believe the use of best tote will help too which hasn't been factored in.
Winner winner chicken dinner! |
There is a free online one around here some where but not sure how accurate it is, there is also one for sale on this website.
http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=17950 |
http://statpages.org/confint.html
This indispensable tool shows your observed strike rate of 52/158 reduces to sustainable one of 25.65%. Suggesting a sustainable POT of 11% rather than the observed 37.8%. |
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