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lomaca 3rd November 2010 02:57 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
ok Lomaca, know exactly what you are saying, this is what I did.

there was 21 bets, all differing prices , I hypothetically bet each individual one to win 100 so...

paying 1.5 bet = 67

paying 2.4 bet = 42

paying 1.89 bet =53

etc etc etc.

now all those 21 bets added up to 1095,

there were 13 successes so 1300 returned i.e. profit of 205

whereas at levels 21 bets returned 22.83


I sat bolt upright at about 3am convinced the reason was just that particular set of selections, i.e. on another day if more of the failures were paying say like 1.23, 1.34, etc etc then the situation could be reversed.

In other words on this particular set of selections, most of the failures were paying $2+ so the amount bet was less than 50% so you lost less on them than you would have done at levels, so I got some sleep, BUUUUT,

going over it again, it appears that that is wrong cos the amount won on the winners was more than at levels overall as the amount bet was greater....... shucks I'm still confused!
As said Party, you can't calculate the average POT like that.
Doesn't matter if you bet to return a $100 or to win a $100.
You must work on average return/bet if you want to work out your POT like this.

What's happening is that the outlay on your non winning bets and the winning bets are not equal and are distorting the the POT.

If you really want see that it is so, do a running tests like you just did, calculated with new selections and results added on every day.

You will see that the POT will change from day to day despite the fact that you bet to the same $100 return, it simply depends what price runners happen to win.

If you calculate all the individual POTs and add them up and divide them by the number of bets you will find that it will be the same, (virtually the same, because of some rounding off effect by not betting fractions) no matter whether you bet level stakes or to set return.

I know it's hard to conceptualise because we calculate POT on money out money in but trust me, in the long run you will find that it will come close to the sum of (POT/number of bets) of the individual runners.

What you can do is to find the price range where the return is negative and eliminate them.

I am 99.9999% sure I'm right in this but if some one can prove me wrong I cheerfully admit it.

Good luck

Raven 3rd November 2010 02:58 PM

Party, how do the Place dividends offered by the bookies hold up longterm? Say if i lost 5% or 6% on a place method on a single TAB, can you turn that into profit by taking what the bookies offer?

ixlat0 3rd November 2010 03:18 PM

partypooper -- check your outlay -- i think you'll find it comes to $1195 (not $1095)

cheers!

partypooper 3rd November 2010 03:24 PM

raven, I wouldn't pretend to be any ************ (re this thread) but one thing is for sure I would NEVER bet on any one Tote.

The examples shown were prices available on Betfair. I guess there is no reason that you couldn't use fixed prices available from any bookies as long as the "overs" principle was employed.

I'd better say though as it turns out over 2500 bets there was virtually no difference betting best tote compared to the prices that you COULD have got with Betfair, which isn't much good to us I know if youre trying to bet to prices, it would be a very hairy and miss affair guessing, you'd win some and lose some.

partypooper 3rd November 2010 04:18 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by ixlat0
partypooper -- check your outlay -- i think you'll find it comes to $1195 (not $1095)

cheers!
,

Gets even more confusing, I checked that and it actually comes to $1144, (not sure how I did that as its all auto calc, but anyway,its not as good but still its 13.60% POT on 1144 so I'm still not convinced WHY?

PS How did you arrive at $1195, when you don't know the prices of the nags?

I'll post the exact details

ixlat0 3rd November 2010 04:42 PM

Quote:
PS How did you arrive at $1195, when you don't know the prices of the nags?
i didn't -- just guess work based on the average -- i assumed that the average of 13 would have to be pretty close to the average of 21 from the same sample -- your outlay seemed too far out -- not unless there was a big price difference between those you won and those you lost -- but it seemed the obvious place to look

cheers

ps the average of win 13 = $1.76, the lost 8 = $1.96, total 21 = $1.84

partypooper 3rd November 2010 05:15 PM

yes thought you must have done an ave. anyway here is the workout (if it'll copy)


Bets.. hits.. price... Outlay...
1... 0... 2.88… 34.72
1.... 0... 1.68… 59.52
1.... 1… 1.79… 55.87
1... 1… 1.31… 76.34
1... 1… 2.08… 48.08
1... 1… 2.23… 44.84
1... 1… 1.43… 69.93
1... 0... 1.56… 64.10
1... 0... 2.18… 45.87
1... 1… 2.28… 43.86
1... 0... 2.62… 38.17
1... 1… 1.35… 74.07
1... 1… 1.63… 61.35
1... 1… 2.03… 49.26
1... 1… 1.36… 73.53
1.. 0... 2.4… 41.67
1... 1… 1.56… 64.10
1... 1… 1.93… 51.81
1... 1… 1.97… 50.76
1.. 0... 2.26… 44.25
1... 0... 2.03… 49.26
21… 13…................. 1,141.37…

thats the best I can get it

partypooper 3rd November 2010 05:31 PM

Thanks everyone for the feedback, Interesting simple idea Michaelg, I guess you place your bets at a given point b4 the off??

Peterpan,

An excellent reply which of course explains it but still,

I didn't bet an average on each did I? I bet to prices and the return of

$1300 return from an OVERALL outlay of $1144 is still $156 which is profit on turnover of 13.6% (OVERALL)

In my mind I still add up ALL bets placed whatever size whatever outcome, -V- Total returns to arrive at a POT OR LOT, am I wrong to do this?

ixlat0 3rd November 2010 06:12 PM

partypooper -- except for rounding errors i get the same result as you -- there is a massive difference between betting at level stakes and proportional staking -- bcoz there is little variance in the dividends (and i assume that this is a representative sample) then proportional staking seems the way forward :)

good luck with it!

lomaca 3rd November 2010 07:23 PM

Hi party,

What I'll do is, I will run lets say 10, 20 thousand race result through a programme (where there are place dividend as well) to compare level stakes and proportional stakes.

We will see if this is a goer, I personally stick to level betting until I'm convinced that proportional staking is better in the price range I'm betting in.

Having thought about it, the one thing prop. staking can do is smooth out the bumps, the lows and highs of level staking but you also miss out on the big divies!

But as I said, we shall see.
I'm certain other people have done this analyses long ago, I wonder why nobody is speaking up?
After all it's not a secret.

I'll do it tomorrow and post it.

Cheers

Ps
Since I don't have any specific selections, I will select the race fav, it really makes no difference win or lose we only want to see the difference between the two methods.


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