"DS highest rating selection you lose 16% on unitab"

Ok, so lets deduct the 14% (being generous) for Unitab, we lose 2%.

I do not know how much better Betfair prices are but lets say better by 4%.

Now we are up by 2%, BUT remember we are betting on every race!

Deduct the Max 5% for Betfair and we lose 3% betting on every race!!!

Suddenly 3% doesn't sound too bad does it?
And I'm being generous here with the difference in prices obtained.

I'm yet to see any rating, paid for or not, or selection method, that will return a profit by betting on every race every day every meeting!

Now, if a punter cannot find some races that he/she can leave out,
(filters) then that punter had better find an other hobby.

Basket weaving sounds nice.

Ran Lucky 7 approach through Online System Builder

RULES
No.7 only
1-9 runners.
All prices

RESULT
7% SR
-42% LOT

Even targeting races with 7 runners & less had a terrible
SR of 8% & -45% LOT which tells you that throwing a dart in such field would produce 14%SR

On the positive side , it makes for a brilliant Lay plan.
Betting 1/15th of Bank
Betting Fixed Liability.

LAY plan rules
Targeting No.7 in races with 1-9 runners , keeps the Lay price nice & low.
Lay bet the lot on Betfair at .5% of bank, for a profit of approx 20%+ POT

Hi, Bhagwan.

Isn't the OSB results for Saturday only and for the four major tracks?

Out of interest I had a look at all tracks for last Sat. There were a few accidents for the Lucky 7 lay plan so I did not record the results as it would have been a losing day.

However I decided to look at No.1 for races of 9 and less starters, again for all tracks.

On Sat there were 33 races for 4 accidents for a NSW TAB liability of $11.50. Because the fields are small it would be surprising if the difference between TAB and Betfair prices are great, so laying them on Betfair would have most likely produced a good profit.

I also looked at yesterday's qualifying races. There were 10 of them for only 1 accident for a TAB liability of $2.

Interesting...

Hi, Bhagwan.

Isn't the OSB results for Saturday only and also only for the four major tracks?

Out of interest I had a look at all tracks for last Sat. There were a few accidents for the Lucky 7 lay plan so I did not record the results as it would have been a losing day.

However I decided to look at No.1 for races of 9 and less starters, again for all tracks.

On Sat there were 33 races for 4 accidents for a NSW TAB liability of $11.50. Because the fields are small it would be surprising if the difference between TAB and Betfair prices are great, so laying them on Betfair would have most likely produced a good profit.

I also looked at yesterday's qualifying races. There were 10 of them for only 1 accident for a TAB liability of $2.

Interesting...

Thanks for sharing those findings Michael,

I ran that No.1 idea through the OSBuilder
It works off Sat Metro only for last 2.5yrs
But it is a strong starting point for any system idea.

It resulted in a
TAB No.1
21% SR
-25% LOT

The Laying result is far stronger targeting
TAB No.7
8% SR
-43% LOT

Using TAB prices

I hate making assumptions on what the betfair price will be so here are the real figures. If you used betfair and I will assume worst commission ate of 5% , you would get a 1.4% loss.

Assuming you removed all those starting in barriers 1-4 you get a 2.6% profit.
Or maybe you only bet on those which are top unitab rating and you get a 2.4% profit.
Or maybe those who have had 20 or less career starts for a profit of 1.7%.

Combine the top 2 (barrier 5 or wider + top unitab rating) and you get a 4.4% profit. My data only goes back 5 months for DS so you get approx 300 bets a month with these filters.

Exactly,every race every day every meeting!,nah,you need to be smarter.

As for the Don Scott ratings,well nothing wrong with them but the way people use them at the expense of other worthy rating methods just shows there is a ******** of a lot of hype surrounding the name.

Might as well call them the Jesus Christ ratings.

When the Bookies of the day where coping the receiving end of Done Scotts successes.
Pulled 100's of thousands from them.

I dont think the Bookies thought they where Jesus Christ ratings maybe more in

line with the other fellow because it certainly created merry ******** for the Bookies.

forget the class weight aspect of DS
 

I read the DS books in the early 1980s and followed his method for a while but eventually found that I achieved better results by dropping his class weight analysis and just use his bonuses for fitness and consistency which I have adapted and still use today although the value has gone there in the past few years too.