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-   -   Don Scott exotics (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21191)

garyf 15th March 2011 08:50 PM

Correct was just looking at it from a value point of view.

beton 18th March 2011 01:44 PM

Further on this I can see that a single straight tri bet per race using Don Scott's Ratings is too much effort for potential reward.
Does anyone have placing percentages for each of the second,third fourth etc favorites? Could you please post them? thanks in advance.

I can see that by ditching the races where fav is <$2.5 and less than 10 runners will provide better payouts. The big payouts are where 2 or 3 longshots got up. The reasonable payouts are where the fav 4-8 have got up. Favs that are more than the tenth favorite are few and far between <2% winners.
I am thinking that by using fav4-8 for the first leg and top 4 for the second and third leg and see what that looks like.
Regards Beton

Dale 19th March 2011 12:25 PM

My own ratings just delivered the straight trifecta in the 2nd at Newcastle.

A return of $919.10 for a $1 outlay.

Interestingly it was a 9 horse (B70) race with well exposed form.

Those looking the exotics with their own or the DS ratings i cant stress strongly enough the need to filter out races where there is just not enough reliable information for the ratings to perform consistently.

beton 19th March 2011 06:24 PM

This is what I am trying to assertain. The top three in ratings as a straight tri should present just less than 2%. But these are the first second and third favorites. And will be significantly overbet. The strike rate also includes short priced favs and small fields. I am asking if using a rating system which obviously will be different to starting favs would these present say 1% of the time? If so then a simple $1 on 50% of all races. pulling $120 + divs
Regards Beton


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